A Voice of Reason in a Bubble Gone Mad?

I love XM satellite radio. In fact, I haven’t listened to one second of ad-infested over the air radio since the day two years ago when I got XM in my truck.

Unlike all of the new tech companies whose only significant revenue source is advertising, XM actually has something for sale that I and millions of others want to buy. Anyone who reads this page knows that I am evangelically committed to my position that, outside of big media, basing a business plan on ad revenue alone is like building a house of cards in the eye of a hurricane.

But somehow even XM has decided to pretend that the laws of economics don’t apply to it. Otherwise, how in the world could they rationalize giving Oprah Winfrey $55M for a three year gig? At $10 a month, you would need about 460,000 people to sign up for one year just to break even, and that assumes every dollar is profit (which of course it isn’t).

At least one former member of XM’s board of directors seems to get it. Pierce J. Roberts Jr. recently resigned from XM’s board. According to the Reuters story, “Roberts believes the company should rein in its spending and instead focus on reaching positive cash flow even if that means slower subscriber growth.”

Amen, brother. At some point these companies have to figure out how to make a profit. If it costs me $5 to make a hotdog I can only sell for $3, then I need to rethink my business plan, if not my entire business. What is it about these companies that make them immune to these rules?

Want my opinion? Part of it is the greater fool theory that drives far too much of our capital and stock markets. All the machinery that’s in place to serve the start-up, funding, public offerings and stock sale process has too much at stake to tolerate any significant reform movement. And just like the wreck on the side of the road, everyone who finally makes it through that pipeline to where the money is slows down to look (and profit).

Witness this quote from an analyst contained in the Reuters story:

Unless this director knows something that the rest of us don’t, I just find his comments inflammatory in an effort to express his personal anger as opposed to anything that could be materially wrong with how the business is being run.

So now proposing that a company be profitable sooner is not only not required, it’s inflammatory?

Great.

Steve Rubel Goes Over the Wall

Steve announced today that he’s leaving CooperKatz and going to work for Edelman, a big PR firm. First of all congratulations and good luck to Steve. And congratulations to Edelman, they got the most well known PR guy on the web, and the guy who just happens to be the single best example of how to use a blog to enhance your business.

I can tell you from my marketing experience that when you can walk into a pitch and say not only “here’s how it can be done,” but also, “and here’s exactly how I did it,” it’s a game-over moment. There is no substitute for walking the walk.

Steve’s news is post-worthy for sure, but what I really enjoyed about his post is the mini-history lesson he gives about his entry into the blogosphere. As a relative new kid on the block (I started using blog software to publish content at Newsome.Org in the fall of 2004, but I didn’t really start blogging until June 2005), this was very interesting reading.

Steve posted his first entry on April 18, 2004. In May 2005 he (along with Dave Sifry, who I hope is fixing the Groundhog Day problems that have beset me and many others, Dan Gillmor and others) was featured in a Business Week story about blogging. That story was written less than one year ago- this reminds us all that the whole blogging thing is still in its infancy.

The best news of all is that Steve will keep blogging at MicroPersuasion, and since he’s probably getting a fat raise, he’ll have to come up with a lot of new and interesting ideas for us to read about.

Stowe Boyd Chimes In

Stowe Boyd, who I don’t know, but who (a) wears a cool hat and (b) must be an authority to be reckoned with since he’s a member of the Web 2.0 Work Group (I want to be a part of the Web 2.0 Play Group, so will someone please found that and invite me), says that Scoble’s directions to the top of bloggers hill were a little lacking in substance.

Stowe gives 10 rules of his own. Since I’m always looking for a better route to the summit, let’s see how I can use Stowe’s rules to my blogging advantage.

1) True Voice

This means write well and passionately. The phrase seems to come from some seminar Stowe puts on, so I’ll overlook the “pre-owned cars” phraseology and agree that writing well and with passsion will help make your blog better. The earth isn’t shaking, but it’s good advice.

2) Throw Yourself Into Dialog

I think this means comment on topics you’re interested in and engage others in dialog. OK, I agree with that. I feel compelled to point out, however, that if the person you are trying to engage in a dialog with doesn’t respond, it’s not dialog- you’re just talking to someone who has already turned away.

Nevertheless, this is still good advice.

3) Draw The Line, Over And Over Again

Now we’re getting somewhere. I actually teach seminars too, and in my negotiation strategy speech one of my themes is that you need to decide in advance what your themes are and return to them consistently during the negotiation process. This concept is important, in negotiation, old media journalism and blog writing. If you don’t map out your themes, you may inadvertently appear inconsistent, and much of your writing will be comprised of “I agree” or “I don’t agree” with what she said about this or that. Sort of like this post, actually.

4) The Big Idea

My experience has led me to conclude that blogs get 90% of their links from 10% of their posts. The other 90% of your posts are important, but to make your bones, you need to get that 10%. I’m starting to get the hint of a pattern to this process and I’ll write more about it later.

But the point is that your lesser posts keep your readers, but your greater posts get you new ones.

5) Sharpen Your Pencil, And Then Write

This is a metaphor for practicing to get better. Just like juggling and free throws, the more you write the better writer you’ll become. But I would add my own tired metaphor to the formula: analytical thinking is at least as important as practiced writing. It’s the combination of the two, with a dose of humor, that gets you that 10%.

6) Courage

I would describe this more as being thick skinned. You simply can’t put yourself out there in the public eye and not face criticism, if not derision. Statistics and human nature dictate that any public or semi-public figure will have a certain number of people who disagree or even dislike him or her.

One of the (perhaps few) things I have working for me as far as the blogging thing goes is that, partially by design and partially as a result of being too hard headed, I have been somewhat of a lightning rod in my other endeavors for 20 or so years. As a result, I am very hard to offend. When (note I didn’t say if) someone calls me an idiot, I am immediately interested in why he or she feels that way. More than a few times, I have been convinced that I was being an idiot and remapped my thinking on the issue.

If you are easily offended, the top of any hill, bloggers or otherwise, will be at least somewhat unpleasant for you.

7) Technology

I guess Stowe ran out of metaphors by the 6’s and 7’s. I agree that we must make technology work for us. As I discussed today in the Comments here, the love of technology is what started me on my trip that ended up in the blogosphere. Certainly, technology is important for those of us who write to the tech industry. But I suppose it’s also important, though less so, for people blogging about non-tech topics.

8) Timing Matters

Momentum plays are as important to journalism as they are to the stock market. Sure, I’d love to say I only write about what I want to write about, but I’m not that existential (yet). All of us, to one degree or another, write about what we think people want to read about.

9) Human Sized Pieces

Stowe says to write like Jeff Goldblum did in The Big Chill– nothing so long it can’t be read in one bathroom trip. I probably break this rule several times a day.

I’m curious what others think about this. I don’t follow this rule very closely, but maybe I should think about it.

10) Respond to comments

This is the close cousin of rule 2 above. Maybe he needed one more for the magic ten. But clearly it is good advice. In fact, I often enjoy the comments here and on the blogs I read as much or more than the posts themselves. Blogs are all about the conversation for me, and the comments are where the conversation generally occurs. And it’s the only place those without blogs can join in.

In sum, I appreciate Stowe’s advice. But I think Scoble’s points are just as valid, even if the words aren’t as artful.

But here’s the thing, both of those guys are trying to help the “bloglorn” (to use Stowe’s slightly condescending word for his audience). And if anyone wants to tell me how to be a better writer and how to reach more people I’ll listen.

But first I’ve got to find me a cooler hat.

Web 2.0 Wars: Round 6

It’s time for Round 6 in Newsome.Org’s Web 2.0 Wars. The contestants and rules are here.

This is the final heat of the first Round. The playoffs will be next.

Other Rounds:
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20

Here are the contestants for Round 6:

Theadcloud
Gather
Agatra
Bowsr
Oyogi
Cafepress
Renkoo
Standpoint
Pixagogo
Meebo
Extra Tasty
Last.fm

Theadcloud is a classified ad site. It’s free and, in true Web 2.0 fashion, is tag based. You can select a tag based on where you are or what you want. Craigslist, a cool company founded by a cool guy, is the king of this space.

We talked a lot about Gather already. I’m on record as a doubter, but there are a lot of smart people behind it.

Agatra is a free service that securely stores your passwords online so that they’re accessible from anywhere you have an internet connection. It can even log you in directly to most sites. Firefox already does a pretty good job of this.

Browsr is a “people powered directory” that categorizes content based on usefulness. It looks neat, but I’m not sure what it does the Technorati doesn’t do.

Oyogi is a service that tries to match questions with experts who can answer them. I asked “how do I get a link from boing boing?” It said “ask again later.” Not really.

Cafepress is a shopping site. It looks like you can make customized stuff like mugs and hats and sell them there. Why do these shopping sites never have an easy to find FAQ?

Renkoo has no information at all on its main page. Mike Arrington says it’s some sort of event/calendaring thing.

Standpoint was discussed here. It looks like a super-charged, improved version of the internet message board. Someone posts an opinion and others are encouraged to chime in. I like the idea.

Pixagogo is a photo storage and sharing site, similar to Smugmug, et al. Crowded space and others have more brand recognition.

Meebo is a ajax-based instant messenger application. You can access and manage various IM programs from the Meebo web page. I can see how someone who has to use various IM applications because of the lack of interconnectivity would like this.

Extra Tasty is a web site that lets you browse for drink recipes, by name or by primary ingredient.

I use Last.fm and I have talked at Fred Wilson, who turned me onto to it, some about it. It’s a very impressive social network focused on music. It has streaming music based on what you like and what those who like what you like like.

Before Today I’d Heard of:

3 out of 12

And the Winner of Round 6 is:

I have to pick Last.fm. Even though I use it, it still wins hands down. Standpoint finishes a solid second. The others lag behind.

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It's a Little Cold Down Here

Many thanks to Om for his link last night. I guess hell did freeze over and I’m grateful for that.

And I wrote a heartfelt email to Steve thanking him for his kind words today. I am very grateful for his encouragement.

It’s hard to make it anywhere in the world or in the blogosphere without the help of others, and I really appreciate all of the advice, links, comments, emails, etc. I have received over the last few months. It cements my resolve to keep writing and it helps me remember that all of us, from the top A-Lister to the blogger who started writing today, are just people trying to make our way from wherever we’ve been to whatever lies ahead.

And the best thing we can do is help each other along the way. I hope one day before too long it will be my turn to reach out a helping hand, be it in the blogosphere or elsewhere.

Now that I’ve got that Hallmark moment out of the way, back to our regular schedule. Coming up: more Web 2.0 wars and a deeper look at Tailrank.

Office Live, Only without Office

I see that Microsoft Office Live has been released into beta today.

officeliveI guess I’ve been asleep at the keyboard, because while I have heard of Office Live, I was completely wrong about what it is. I thought it was online versions of Microsoft Office- you know Word, Excel and all that. Turns out it is a website hosting and development tool for small businesses.

And based on my reading this morning, I’m not the only person who was mistaken about Office Live.

Joe Wilcox at the Microsoft Monitor finally explained what Office Live is. Microsoft Merrimac has not yet weighed in on the issue.

Greg Linden may be on to something when he wonders if the name isn’t really about leveraging Microsoft Office’s mindshare.

Fellow Wagon Trainer Phil Sim thinks it’s about finding a growth area and awaits Google’s parry.

While I agree that small business is a growth area, it blows my mind that so many people are confused about what Office Live is or is not. This was either some bizarre marketing strategy by Microsoft or failure to manage the opening properly. The buzz that the term Office Live generates fades into confusion and disappointment upon closer review.

I’m not a marketing guru, but why not call it Business Live?

All of this unnecessary confusion is too bad, because it looks like Office Live is a pretty neat service, notwithstanding the confusing name.

The news I like even better today is this little nugget I found over at JK‘s. A free hosted Exchange service. Now that’s something a lot of small businesses really need. Why is this not getting more attention?

Climbing Bloggers Hill: Scoble on Getting A-Listed

hardclimbAs a Valentine’s Day present to those of us trying to scrape and claw our way up bloggers hill (and there are many of us), Scoble hands out some tips for joining the A-List. Obviously he knows what it takes to get on the proverbial A-List and he has some good ideas.

Here are a few of them, as always with my commentary:

1) Use a Clever Headline.

I agree with this, though the advice of the so called professional bloggers is mixed in this regard. Some like clever headlines, some don’t. My newspaper-type article background (for the Houston Business Journal among others) almost forces me to try to come up with a clever lead in, as well as a tag (the lead out, not Technorati kind). I try to be clever or funny without going over the top.

Who knows if I succeed, but that’s my goal at least.

2) Use Technorati, and with a Photo

I am still stuck in Technorati Ground Hog Day, so I haven’t had time to figure out why my uploaded photo never shows up beside my outbound links. Maybe I’ll get that worked out after I save my rapidly disappearing old links.

3) Be Different.

That’s also good advice. But you have to make sure it’s good different and not bad different. This I think is the key to any writing, be it a blog or a book. When you are speaking to an audience, it’s easier to be good different by being excited, prepared, funny and modest. But when you’re writing, it’s more difficult. I try many approaches to this problem, but if I had to describe my approach in a few words it would be to aim for thoughtful analysis dressed up in humor.

Or perhaps someone could do a blog in latin, or pig-latin. I guarantee you some A-Listers would be all over a blog in latin.

Bad different is easy. Good different is hard. Try hard for good different. And link to Om at least once in every post. He won’t link back, but at least he’ll feel a little guilty about it.

Another good technique is to pick a fight with Dave Winer. He’ll be compelled to scream at you and to do that he needs to link to you or at least go to your site and leave a comment. Mathew Ingram is the father of this approach.

4) Use graphics and good design.

I think this is actually a huge part of it. Most blog nerds like me read blogs via RSS feed readers, but approximately none of the rest of the world does. So how the page looks probably has a major effect on first impressions and a reader’s likelihood of returning.

Having said that, I actually think I have a really good layout on this page and I’m not exactly shooting up the Technorati 100 list.

5) Use Tags

I agree with this one to. I tag almost all of my posts and around 15% of my traffic comes from Technorati. That’s actually a lot from one page.

6) Make Friends with Other Bloggers

This is also huge. I have developed a great relationship with a bunch of other similarly situated bloggers. If not for this loose association, we would all be stranded alone out here at the end of the long tail. As it is, at least we have created some sort of wagon train to get us through the rough areas.

Having said that, I have genuinely tried to reach out to a lot of Scoble’s blog buddies through links, comments, humor, etc. Scoble and Doc responded a little. I earned up to a link from Steve (thanks, Steve, and I mean it). But most of them haven’t responded at all. So I don’t know how realistic it is to expect a lot of these guys to truly involve you in their conversations, even if you write thoughtful posts. Candidly, I think hell will freeze over before Om, Mike and a few others will link to me, even though I write a lot about the stuff they’re interested in. I don’t even want Calacanis to link here any more. And trying to get a link from within any of the major blog networks is like trying to go hunting with Dick Cheney and not get whacked. Highly unlikely these days.

In many ways the blogosphere has been a humbling experience for me. Having written and published extensively in the old media and being a very active speaker on the seminar and convention circuit, it was a bit of an eye-opening experience when I started blogging and realized that so few of the established bloggers wanted to hear what I had to say. To be honest, it irritated me at first. But then I realized it was a chance to start over and try to earn my stripes again. And as someone who loves to build, that was a challenge I couldn’t resist. The secret, I think, is to make sure you have fun along the way. If so, then the worst thing that can happen is you have fun.

As far as bloggers hill goes, I am close to concluding that the only way to actually get near the top of that hill is to form a wagon train with some people you like, set off towards parts unknown and have fun along the way. If we do that, we just might make it.

After all, time and history are on our side.

Web 2.0 Wars: Round 5

It’s time for Round 5 in Newsome.Org’s Web 2.0 Wars. The contestants and rules are here.

This is the final heat of the first Round. The playoffs will be next.

Other Rounds:
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20

Here are the contestants for Round 5:

iNods
Lulu
Rbloc
BR
Blish
Flagr
FireAnt
SimplyHired
Veoh

iNods is a shopping-focused product review aggregator. Neat idea, and the searches seem fast and reliable. I did some searches for some really bizare things and got lots of hits, so the database must be deep.

Lulu is a service that allows authors to self-publish and sell books, CDs, DVDs and other products. Lulu gets a 25% royalty, which seems reasonable to me. I haven’t tried the service, but I really like the idea a lot. I could see this taking off if it can be the leader in the space. Maybe I’ll write a book about why Darren should link to Newsome.Org.

Rbloc is a auction site where you can buy and sell services or products. It’s still in beta so there’s not a ton of stuff for sale yet.

I couldn’t find BR. They badly need a new name or a least a logo that gives a clue how to find them via Google.

Blish is a place to sell digital content, such as ebooks, photos, how-to guides, clipart, music, sound loops, video, design templates. It’s in beta and while there are quite a few things for sale, the inventory will undoubtedly increase over time.

Flagr is not yet live. I talked about it a little here.

FireAnt is a video blog directory and search engine. The downloadable client allows you to watch video blogs right from the FireAnt web site.

Simplyhired is a job search site, with some useful features like a link to LinkedIn that will let you see who you know at the company (if you use LinkedIn, that is).

Veoh is a service that allows you to create and distribute your own internet TV show. It claims to support full screen TV quality video over broadband. Maybe this is how I can get MacDaddy, Day Trader, my great idea for a reality TV show on the air. I know this guy from Philly. He is extremely nervous (his other nickname is MacNervous). He knows nothing about the stock market. So we somehow get him to pool his life savings with some producer-supplied money and make him immediately start actively day trading all day, every day while on camera. Trust me, it would be hilarious and better than anything currently on SpikeTV.

Before Today I’d Heard of:

1 out of 9

And the Winner of Round 5 is:
FireAnt nudges out Veoh, but only because MacDaddy, Day Trader isn’t on Veoh yet.

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