Netflix and the Video Download Jones

Om Malik (who has now gone 508 consecutive days without linking to Newsome.Org) has an article today about Netflix and its continuing jones to get into the video download game. Recall that Netflix thought it had a deal working with TIVO for some sort of video download service, but the movie studio cartel put an end to those plans.

Now there’s evidence that Netflix remains interested in developing some sort of video download service. Naill Kennedy, while taking a break from trying to solve my Technorati 42 and only 42 links problem, found some job postings where Netflix is looking for people for jobs that sound related to the serving, downloading and playing of video content.

I have said many times that I think selling downloadable video for viewing on computers and iPods and whatnot is the biggest much ado about nothing since Y2K. It is a supply in search of a demand. But I have also said that I use and love Netflix. So what about this potential pairing of a great thing (Netflix) and a generally stupid thing (downloadable videos)?

First of all, of the many things wrong with the whole downloadable video concept, the thing that is most wrong is that it generally involves: (a) reruns of free and/or boring content, (b) being sold, (c) to be downloaded and somehow moved onto some other device, (d) where it will be viewed in a lesser format on a tiny screen.

But that may not be true in the case of Netflix’s proposed service. Perhaps Netflix is trying to use the internet as merely a cheaper distribution method. Perhaps Netflix wants to give people the option of downloading the videos they currently get in the mail, not to some tiny little iPod, but to their video recorders to be viewed on their TVs. Here’s what has to happen for that to work:

1) Make it cost no more than Netflix customers currently pay. It’s a distribution method only. If it’s cheaper for Netflix, good for them- we want them to stay in business. But few will pay more for something that is, at best, only marginally more convenient.

2) Make it work seamlessly with our current hardware, or at least with cheap new hardware we can rent or purchase. I watch videos on my HDTV. Whether they get there via mailed DVDs or downloaded files makes no material difference to me.

3) Make it seem instantaneous. It takes a long time to download an entire movie. So let us order them today via a screen that looks and feels like (or perhaps is) the current Netflix website, have them downloaded overnight and available tomorrow.

4) Don’t clog up our broadband connections. That’s why you have to have the downloads done late at night.

5) Permit no stupid DRM limitations. One of the problems with Movielink is that you only have a short period to watch the movie. We don’t want to give up the flexibility we have with mailed DVDs. So keep the rules the same.

If all of this happens, I would absolutely consider letting Netflix distribute my movies to me over the net. This is nothing like the $1.99 Lost rerun on a tiny screen. It’s the same thing I have now, only hopefully a little cheaper for Netflix.

Technorati Tags:
netflix, dvd

The Sad State of the Union

I spent last night listening to Fred’s Radio and tonight reading his State of the Union post.

I won’t mince words: it is the best post I have ever read and it sums up the way a lot of us feel about the people and political parties who wage a war of weapons against an unseen enemy, a war of words against each other, and a war of bullshit against the American people.

You’re not alone Fred. Not by a long shot.

Will Google Buy a Seat at the Music Table?

googlemusic After tossing up its Google Video store to less than rousing reviews, the latest rumor is that Google is about to enter the online music fray. I suggested the other day that Google buy Pandora, my favorite online listening spot.

But the perceived money is in downloadable songs. And while I am on record that I won’t buy any DRM infested music, a lot of people will. So unlike selling downloadable videos, which I think is a supply in search of a demand, I think there is something to be said for selling downloadable songs.

There are two ways to build an online music store. From the ground up, which may result in a better, more innovative product, but takes longer to develop and much longer to generate any meaningful market share. The other way is to buy and incorporate an existing store. Yahoo got music by acquisition when it bought Launchcast and then MusicMatch.

So the word on the web is that Google is thinking about buying Napster, the popular, but DRM-infested namesake of the once innovative and much maligned by the RIAA peer to peer music service. Or maybe not. Once again, we’re all talking about something that might be a creation of the blogosphere.

I think buying Napster is probably Google’s best avenue to enter the online music business. For one thing, Google can’t afford the fallout from another blown opening. Additionally, while I don’t use Napster, I’ve read pretty good stuff about it. Napster gives Google instant market share and music credibility. Plus we know what Napster looks like already, so there won’t be hundreds of “are you kidding” posts the day Google goes live with it.

I’d love to see Google change the world again by bringing forth a new, innovative online music store. But the legal restrictions, the RIAA-gone-wild problem and the somewhat mature market make that unlikely. Plus, if Google thought Google Video was going to rock the house, then I’m not sure I want it to try to reinvent too many wheels.

So buying entry might be the way to go. But Google must recognize and remember that online music is quickly becoming a commodity. Online music stores are no longer destinations. They are online gas stations, dispensing song files they squeeze out of the record label cartel.

As such, brand building is almost an exercise in futility and the online music stores will always be at the mercy of the record labels. Exxon just proved that you can make money in commodities, but to do so you must have an inherent advantage or learn to operate cheaply and quickly. One of the best advantages in a commodity game is the ability to predict where the market is going next. Predicting the actions of the granny hating, catless bag holding, all-in-a panic record industry sounds like a tough order to fill. So I don’t see much chance for an advantage.

Without an inherent advantage and with what most believe to be very thin margins that don’t leave much room for competing on price, Google has to compete on service and name alone. That’s harder to do. There’s a lot of demand for online music, but it is, at the end of the day, a commodity. Since people care less about where they buy a commodity, it makes sense to enter the game by acquiring someone who has market share. But the price has to be right.

All in all, it’s a good move for Google. If the price is right.

Technorati Tags:
google, napster, digital music

Technorati: I’m Open in the End Zone

Technorati

As anyone who reads this blog knows, I have become a customer evangelist for Technorati. I think it is the backbone of the blogosphere and use it daily to find posts to read on whatever topic I am thinking about at the time. I also use it to find inbound links so I can return the link via the Most Recent Inbound Links list on the right side of the main Newsome.Org page.

I’ve had technical problems with Technorati before. Dave Sifry threw me the 99 yard pass of tech support back in December. After that, things worked great, for a while. Then I noticed some hiccups. First, some of my own posts started showing up in my inbound links search results. Then my posts went away, and I thought the problem was fixed. Then about half of my inbound links just disappeared, with no links over 21 days old appearing in my search results. Then the list kept shrinking.

As of today, the oldest link that shows up is only 19 days old. My link numbers are less than half what they were a couple of weeks ago.

I wrote Technorati via the contact link several days ago. No response yet.

I have been hesitant to even mention these problems because I figured Technorati would fix whatever the problem is and I couldn’t be sure that this problem wasn’t unique to me. Then I read this post at The Blog Herald, and the comments thereto. It seems I am not the only user experiencing problems.

I still love Technorati. And I believe these problems will be fixed. I just hope they are fixed soon so I can continue to rely on Technorati.

Dave, I’m open- hit me!

UPDATE: Once again, Dave comes to the rescue (via the Comments below). Technorati is growing fast, and there will always be growing pains when you have to scale at the speed of clicks. But they are building a ton of goodwill and a legion of customer evangelists by being a positive and responsive presence in the blogosphere. I really like this company a lot. Maybe when they get huge I can be their Scoble!

Dave indicates in a comment to The Blog Herald post that third party pingers may be causing some of the problems. I am going to take Dave’s advice and only ping Technorati directly from now on. I suggest that anyone having similar problems do the same.

Technorati Tags:
technorati

Scoble: Death by Risk Aversion

Scoble has a post today about the widespread corporate fear of the new. He says:

I present to a lot of corporations. Everywhere I go I smell the fear. People are scared to do something different.

His post was inspired by this excellent post by Kathy Sierra. Among many good points she makes is the following:

Sometimes managers are putting the best interests of the company first. That’s great–they’re often more experienced and have a better grasp of the bigger context. But (and it’s a really big but) sometimes they’re just worried about their own damn job.

Both of these quotes are completely consistent with my experiences. In fact, in one of my 2006 predictions posts I talked about this exact issue, oddly enough in the context of Microsoft Office’s move towards the web:

Yes, Microsoft Office will be more “web like,” which is a very good thing, but no major corporation (and certainly no law or accounting firm) is going to allow mass storage of documents online for two reasons: one, liability; two, the fear of a bad decision (“if it’s always been done this way and I keep doing it this way, I’m not responsible if it doesn’t work; but if I change how it’s done and it doesn’t work, I’m toast”- I’ve actually had clients say this very thing to me before on more than one occasion).

riskaversion Actually, I can’t count on two hands the times I have heard this spiel in one form or another. The safest decision for the fearful manager will always be the status quo. If the status quo isn’t possible, then the easiest choice will be the thing that is the most consistent with the status quo. With innovation or a change in direction comes responsibility and with responsibility comes risk. And many corporate managers are taught, not by the company, but through their experiences and observations, to be risk averse above all other things.

People believe that if they can get what they want while making someone else responsible for the decision, they are much safer in the corporate environment. At the crossroads of safety and innovation, safety wins almost all the time.

I agree that a company is better served by people who are willing to make decisions, seek innovation and take responsibility. But I think it’s going to be very hard to change this behavior without a significant paradigm shift in corporate training, management and advancement.

Fred's Radio, Annotated

Don’t it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed’s Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed’s Radio

Several of us have been talking about the relative merits of Pandora vs. the Last.fm player as a way to find good music you’ve never heard. Fred Wilson really digs Last.fm. I like Last.fm, but so far I’m more sold on Pandora.

Fred’s one of my Last.fm “friends” so I thought I’d fire up his Personal Radio and see what songs played and what I think about them. Here are the first 10 that played and my thoughts about them:

1) Ween – Take Me Away. Though Fred and I like a lot of the same music, his tastes are chronologically broader than mine. I know everything about music prior to 1990 and almost nothing about music after 1995. Ween is sort of in between- I’ve heard a few of their songs, but not many. This one doesn’t do much for me.

2) Cat Power – Willie. My God, what a beautiful song! It sent a shiver up my spine. Perfectly beautiful. Great use of horns. A 10+.

3) M. Ward – Paul’s Song. I’ve read about M. Ward on Fred’s blog, but this is the first song of his I’ve ever heard. Fred, if you like this guy, go check out Bill Morrissey’s first 4 records. Good writing. I like it, but I’ve got Cat Power on my brain now.

4) Nirvana – Where Did You Sleep Last Night. As a general rule, I’m not big on the whole grunge thing. But this song actually has a melody, perhaps because it’s a cover of an old blues song. I’m no Nirvana fan, but this sounds good.

5) Rolling Stones – Stop Breaking Down. Fred and I share a love of Exile on Main Street. I love this song.

6) Peter Green Splinter Group – Running After You. Peter Green, the original force behind the first and better incarnation of Fleetwood Mac was one of the greatest guitar players in the world until he basically went mad. Peter Green average is better than just about anyone else’s finest moment. Not an earth shattering song, but any Peter Green is good.

7) Billy Bragg & Wilco – Airline to Heaven. Fine song off of the second Mermaid Avenue record. Good 12 string guitar.

8) Kings of Convenience – Misread. Never heard of this band before. Mellow indy sound. I like it, but I don’t love it. This would be a good song to listen to sitting on a deck overlooking some water on a fall day.

9) The Flaming Lips – Fight Test. I assume Cat Stevens got co-writing credit for this song, because it is virtually identical in melody and close in lyrics to Father and Son, one of Cat’s best songs. I like it a lot, but I keep thinking of the original song when I hear it.

10) The Zutons – Moons and Horror Shows. Never heard of them either. Great folksy number, that actually turns into an even better song half way through. I like it a lot.

All in all, I am pretty impressed by Fred’s Radio. Last.fm will become a significant part of my music listening experience. But I still slightly prefer Pandora.

Kent’s Firefox Toolbar Wishlist

Mathew Ingram isn’t impressed with the new version of the Google Toolbar for Internet Explorer. Mike Arrington likes it.

Having once idiotically said that I didn’t see what the big deal was about Firefox, I now use it exclusively. So I don’t get to try out the new Google Toolbar.

When Google does update the Google Toolbar for Firefox, here are 5 things I’d like to see added (the things I really want added, like embedded Delicious and Flickr searches aren’t feasible since Google fell asleep and let Yahoo buy those sites first):

1) Bloglines support. Build a plugin or let Bloglines build one that alerts me when my blogroll content is updated. Even better, let me read the new content in a pop up window, or click on a link to pull up my Bloglines page.

2) Technorati AND Google Blog Search support. Give me an option to search via Technorati and Google Blog Search from the toolbar and to easily see a list of other blogs that link to the page I am reading. Google may feel that Technorati is a competitor to its blog search feature. I don’t think so, but if Google bought Technorati like I’ve been telling it to, that would solve any perceived problem.

3) Give me multiple auto-fill options. I want to have my home and business particulars available at the click of a button. Multiple credit card information would be a plus too.

4) Wikipedia support. Let me search words and phrases in Wikipedia the way I can with Google and Google Groups, etc.

5) Embed a Pandora player. If Google wants to buy Pandora, fine. That would be a great kick-start to and advantage for the rumored Google Music site. But either way, give me a one click play button for my Pandora account.

More Evidence of the Dirty Bubble

dbubble-748250 We’ve been kicking around the boom, bubble or bust thing for the past few days, and just when I started to believe that we had not actually forgotten the hard lessons we learned from the last bubble and bust, I read this article in the NY Times. If there was one perfect example of the bubble mentality of the late nineties, it is the story of Blue Mountain and the E-Card.

Here’s the part of that article that matters most:

Excite@Home, the ill-fated online portal and high-speed Internet service, bought Blue Mountain for $780 million in 1999, partly for its ability to give advertisers a way to reach a wide swath of the Internet audience. Excite sold Blue Mountain two years later for $35 million to American Greetings….

If we truly see a resurgence of E-Cards, then we know the dirty bubble is lurking somewhere. I realize that an E-Card in and of itself does not create a bubble, but the mere fact that E-Cards are mentioned in a major newspaper is a bad omen that should send us running for the hills.

Technorati Tags:
bubble, e-cards

I’m Having Some RSS Feed Problems

I’ve noticed on Bloglines that a few of my posts have been showing up as partial feeds. A friend of mine tells me he has seen the same thing when reading Newsome.Org there.

Be assured, I have my feeds configured to be full feeds. If you get any partial feeds, please send me an email by clicking here and let me know.

I want to make sure I get this fixed before I lose too many readers.

Thanks

Want to Join My Fantasy VC League?

Well, now that my fantasy football season is over (I had the best record in the league, again, and choked in the playoffs, again), it’s time to move on. In light of all the VC conversations we’ve been having lately, I’m going to play fantasy VC, based on the start-ups mentioned by Mike Arrington in this post. Everyone is welcome to join my league.

Here we go.

BillMonk:

“Anytime you feel the need to track finances with your friends, think of BillMonk.”

I go to lunch with the same group of guys several times a week. One guy is a vegetarian, so his food is always cheaper. When we just split the bill equally the rest of us call it the vegetarian subsidy. He hates it; we love it. But I don’t see a business plan based on tracking who owes who for lunch, or even who owes their half of the rent.

First of all, someone has to enter the data for the website to track it. Second, most of this stuff could be done with a spreadsheet, without the need to put it on the web. Most importantly, I don’t see how doing this stuff on the web, even with cell phones, is going to make my life easier.

Outlook: neat idea, but I don’t see a business here.

Would I Pay for It: no chance.

411 Metro

Truth is, 411 should be free. So, we changed it. By simply including short, relevant ad messages from local businesses, we deliver the best possible directory service experience for you, the consumer, and the businesses you’re calling.

My wife must believe 411 is free. Otherwise why would she call it so much. 411 Metro, which says it is ad supported, has a toll free number. The FAQ says they charge the business we call a fee. Well, OK, but does that mean businesses have to sign up (i.e., agree to pay the charge) in order for us to find their number via this service? A quick read of the website doesn’t provide an answer for this.

I see two possible problems. First, my cell provider doesn’t charge extra for 411 calls and if this service takes off (and businesses are willing to be charged for connections), what prevents the cell phone companies from doing the same thing? Second, to the extent I was required to listen to an add when I called to get a number, it would be a deal stopper.

Outlook: interesting concept, but I don’t see much of a barrier to entry for better positioned competition.

Would I Pay for It: not likely.

Standpoint:

Standpoint is a social encyclopedia of belief. It’s a place where you can share your perspective and learn about the perspectives of other people. It’s a tool for organizing the web by opinion.

This looks to me like a super-charged, improved version of the internet message board. Someone posts an opinion and others are encouraged to chime in. As we have talked about, I think message boards are still relevant, and this looks like a good Web 2.0 angle on modernizing the message board concept.

I can tell the developers from vast experience that policing the users, weeding out the disrupters and ensuring that everyone feels welcome will be a significant challenge. If that happens, I could see myself using this site some.

Outlook: I like the idea a lot. But online ad revenue as the only revenue source is a tough sell.

Would I Pay for It: unlikely.

LiketyShip:

No information available from the website, so I’ll rely on Mike’s description:

It is an ecommerce service that can deliver purchased goods within two hours of placing the order. The magic? They combing local retail shops with the apparent over-capacity in the local courier market. Couriers pick items up at retail shops and deliver them immediately.

Very similar things have been tried before (remember Kozmo?). Yes, a lot of people have items shipped overnight or 2-day by Amazon and other retailers, but many people (including me) pay yearly for Amaazon Prime which makes 2-day shipping free. Amazon Prime was a stroke of brilliance by Amazon. If Amazon discontinues Amazon Prime, I might use a service like LiketyShip once in a while. But it assumes that what I want is available in my town for the same price I can get it online, and that’s not always the case.

Outlook: new implementation of an old idea.

Would I Pay for It: maybe once in a while, if the delivery add on is reasonable.

Flagr:

Share your favorite places with your friends or the world right from your mobile phone.

They are only collecting emails for an upcoming beta, so there’s not much I can tell from the website. Here’s Mike’s description:

The company promises to allow people to send tips on real world stuff in via a text message on a cell phone. Type in the title, address and comments, send it to Flagr and broadcast it to your friends or everyone.

Maybe, but what’s better about this than an email or text message? There may be more to this that meets the eye, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Outlook: too early to tell.

Would I Pay for It: no, unless there’s much more than meets the eye.

PlaceSite:

PlaceSite introduces a new way of using wireless networks — to create digital community services by, for and about people who are together in the same physical place.

OK, now we have something that grabs me. This sounds like a modern, anywhere version of the old Area Code restaurant I went to a few times in Florida back in college. Each table had a unique “area code” displayed on a big sign above the table. So you could ring up the table of girls across the room and chat them up.

This seems like an online, text messaging, chat room version of that. I’m far too old to be interested in this, but I can imagine a huge market for this sort of thing.

Outlook: very good.

Would I Pay for It: no, but if I were a 20-something I would certainly frequent places that had this service running.

Box.Net:

Box.net is your personal online space (or box) where you can store your documents, photos, music files, video clips, and more!

Box.Net is a player in the fast moving online storage game. For $2.99 a month you get 1GB of online storage. Mark Cuban is funding this venture, so you can be assured there’s a good business model in place.

I have not yet concluded that I need any online storage, but if I did, I would certainly consider Box.Net.

Outlook: competitive space, but they may be far enough down the road to be a long-term player.

Would I Pay for It: not yet.

Skobee:

Wondering what your friends are up to this weekend? Wanna get some co-workers together for a happy hour? Trying to find tonight’s hot spot?

They are only collecting emails for an upcoming beta, so there’s not much I can tell from the website. Here’s Mike’s description:

Skobee [is] focused on event planning (as opposed to an evite which looks at organizing people once the event specifics have been finalized). One thing I really like about Skobee is that users just email back
an
d forth, cc’ing a unique skobee email address. Based on the live demo the service seems to be quite good at turning natural language into structured text.

I get Evites all the time for stuff, and I think it’s a good service, because it lets you see who’s coming and it makes it easy to RSVP one way or the other and to change your response if something changes. I know Skobee is focused on creating the specifics as opposed to sending invitations, but sometimes doing something on a computer is more cumbersome than just picking on the phone. I can see some people using this, but I can’t see it taking the party planning world by storm.

Outlook: too early to tell, but I’m not blown away by the concept.

Would I Pay for It: no chance.

NeuroSky:

Neurosky has developed a non-invasive neural sensor and signal processing technology that converts brainwaves and eye movements into useful electronic signals to communicate with a wide range of electronic devices, consoles, and computers.

This sounds too Jurassic Park for me to understand, much less comment on, but if it works, it could be very big. I’m naturally skeptical, so I am a little…skeptical.

Outlook: interesting.

Would I Pay for It: I don’t know.

Anybody else want to join my Fantasy VC League?