Web 3.0: Reading the Kiko Leaves

web20One of the questions that has been tossed around the blogosphere recently is whether Kiko’s failure portends a coming wave of other Web 2.0 failures. Scoble says accurately and succinctly what I and other have been saying for months:

“Getting the cool kids to try your technology isn’t the same thing as having a long-term business proposition.”

That’s why I continue to believe that developers need to start hitting for average instead of swinging for the fences. It’s another way to describe the corner market approach I have talked about.

Is Kiko just the first of many Web 2.0 applications to throw in the towel? Of course it is- math 101 tells us that much. There are a lot of horses running in the same race, and some of them will be left behind. Plus, at least some of these applications are being created out of the love of creation, rather than the wish for riches. As other of life’s responsibilities call, some of these will be shuttered or ignored into oblivion.

The bigger question is whether Kiko heralds the beginning of a big shakeout that will leave the Web 2.0 platform in shambles?

I think the clear answer to that is no. There’s still angel and VC money looking for a place to land. And Yahoo and Google have not abandoned growth by acquisition. I suspect the rate of new Web 2.0 companies will slow a little as we climb up the curve. But there’s still fun to be had and at least the chance for money to be made.

The big shakeout will come when everyone is forced to realize that ad dollars cannot support the weight that everyone from Web 2.0 to MySpace to AOL to Google is placing on its shoulders.

The next wave of Web 3.0 companies will be the ones that create products and applications that people will pay for. Somewhere along the way pay became a dirty word. Math and economics will force that to change- the only question is when.

Web 2.0, and likely Web 3.0, play on a different field than the enterprise applications that rake in the big money. They are largely aimed at consumers- but there’s plenty of money there. Ask Amazon and eBay about that.

After the big shakeout does come, look for the next group of web based applications to go old school and actually expect users to pay for their products.

That means no tossing up a web site just to announce that you are working on some bookmarking or networking service. It means coming out of the gate with something that enough people will pay for to keep you afloat while you market it to the larger population. It means having something that is really cool or useful and not just a thinly disguised advertising platform.

In sum, it means better applications for us and more money for them.

In the long run, that will be good for the web, good for the developers and good for the consumer.

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Morning Reading: 8/18/06

Kevin Brown used to throw heat, now he carries it.

Lost a manual for your TV, camcorder, etc.?  UsersManualGuide.Com probably has it. 

My Sirius lust (particularly for channel 14) keeps growing, this time courtesy of the Sirius Conductor, a small Sirius tuner, indoor/outdoor antenna, and remote control with a 3 line LCD readout that shows channel, artist and song.

AOL continues giving itself away, this time with free personal email domains.  The AOL announcement is here.

TIVO is going down at the hands of DirecTV’s abandonment, but, by golly, it’s making a valiant effort to take Dish Network with it.  The big winners in all this are the cable companies.

Fred Wilson picks Pretzel Logic as his music nugget for this week.  Fine choice.  Steely Dan’s music has aged better than any other rock band, excepting perhaps the Stones.  When a record from the 70’s sounds like it could have been released last week, you know that band has captured the magic.  Steely Dan had a patent on the magic from Can’t Buy a Thrill through The Royal Scam. That’s 5 masterpieces in 5 years.

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A Few Tweaks for Live Writer

I’ve been using Live Writer to write my posts for the last several days.  I still like it a lot, but I have now used it enough to suggest a few new features it needs.

1. An option to send pings only on the initial publication of the post.  I don’t want to re-ping when I edit to fix the invariable typo.

2. A way to save templates.  All of us have repetitive posts that contain a lot of the same elements.  Give us a way to save and pull up multiple templates.  Sure you can do it now by creating drafts, but that doesn’t work nearly as well as a separate template menu would work.  For one thing, the naming convention doesn’t lend itself to doing it that way.

3. I don’t know what it is exactly, but there is a keyboard command for publishing that I have accidentally hit 4 times in 4 days.  This is an unnecessary caps-lock sort of annoyance.  Give us the ability to customize- or delete entirely- keyboard commands.

4. While I enjoy the WYSIWYG interface, the resulting html is jumbled beyond recognition.  Can’t we clean it up a little with spaces between the paragraphs, etc.? Blogger’s editing application does this pretty well, so it shouldn’t be hard to implement.

And one new plugin I want…

5. One that will allow me to input the Amazon ISBN or ASIN number and generate a link with my Amazon Associates information included.

And one problem I have noticed…

6. For some reason, my new posts are not showing up as new in Bloglines.  When you click my feed, they are there, but my blog is not showing up in bold with the number of new posts in parenthesis like it used to and like it is supposed to.  Has anyone else noticed this?

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Of Shel and Chip and Seth and Nick

Remember a long time ago (in blog years) when we had the last debate about Gatekeeping? In the midst of it all Shel Israel offered up a tale about some lady who started a blog and got famous as proof that anyone can become an A-Lister. I guess Shel figured he had so befuddled us with his logic that the debate was put to rest, out of confusion if not consent.

Now we’ve had another gatekeeping debate in which some A-Listers respond with contempt at the very mention of the issue, while few take the time to view the issue objectively. Nick, Seth and I, among many others, attempted to have a conversation about it in the comments to Nick’s post as well as the comments to Chip Camden’s post. I guess it looks like we’re hopelessly confused again and so, presto, Shel graces us with another homily.

This time it seems that the fact Shel found Nick’s post via “one Sterling ‘Chip’ Camden” somehow proves that the blogosphere is so flat that if you stand on a sardine can you can see the back of your head. I’ll leave for now the condescension of the word “one” and the fact that in the very post in which he claims that A-Listers have no gatekeeping power, he is quick to call himself one (along of course with Doc and Michael), as those nuggets are really not germane to my point.

Let’s think about this a second. The fact that on one occasion, Shel found his way to a post by Nick via a post by Chip means that the notion of a gatekeeper is, to quote Shel’s pal Robert, bunk? This is somehow true even though Shel makes it a point to say that he doesn’t read Nick’s blog and only acknowledges it when Nick starts a conversation that he (Shel) simply can’t avoid? I bought and enjoyed Shel’s book, but I suggest Shel leave that logic out of his writing portfolio.

In fact, my primary conclusion after reading the so called A-Listers’ explosive reactions to what was nothing less than a thoughtful and well written post by Nick (regardless of whether you agree with his conclusions) is that someone IS complaining a bit too loudly. It’s just not who they think. You don’t need Gertrude to tell you that the higher you go up blogger’s hill the louder it sounds.

And then Shel turns to Seth. He says he has subscribed to Seth’s blog “for a while.” That’s a good thing. An iron-clad, logically indisputable thing, however, is one of the recent comments Seth made in response to a surprisingly mean-spirited comment by Hugh MacLeod in the comments to that post by the “one” Chip Camden (sorry, I tried to let it go, but couldn’t)- a comment that uses a close first cousin of the logic Shel tried with his most recent homily.

Hugh says:

I’ve been a pro writer for almost 20 years. The successful writers I know personally, without exception, take responsibility for their own experience. Seth doesn’t, as far as I can tell.

To which Seth replies:

I suspect this says something more about you, rather than being a moral lesson of global import. It’s akin to “The rich people I know personally all attribute it to their faith in God”. That could be a true statement as far as it goes, but the objective meaning is not what you intend.

To which I say, the fact that Shel stumbled across Chip’s post on his way to Nick’s post has no bearing whatsoever on whether there is or is not an oligarchy in the blogosphere. Just like the fact that Hugh, who is rightfully well known for his blogging and drawing, knows a bunch of self-responsible professional writers has no bearing on the notion of self responsibility for Seth or anyone else.

I have no gripe with Hugh, and I have no gripe with Shel. I am just exercising my ability to, as Shel puts it, “interest enough people enough of the time.”

Because my original post, which was addressing the reach of the blogosphere as a whole as opposed to the varying reaches within it, was part of the inspiration for Nick’s post, I want to say for the record that I don’t believe anyone anywhere has any duty to link to me or anyone else. While I’m a ways down the hill from Shel and his proclaimed peers, I have a lot of readers. Sure I aspire to have more, but my argument has always been more about being a part of the conversation than about engaging in the inefficient process of badgering links out of Shel and his ilk. Sure, I have said many times that bloggers listen with links, and sure I have been frustrated at times by getting linked around. But links for me are always secondary to being a part of the conversation. Evidence of participation, perhaps, but a by-product of the goal- not the goal itself.

Since we are using Chip’s post as part of the official record on this round of the gatekeeper debates, I’ll restate a comment I made there that sums up my position on this nonsense.

I’m not so much interested in having the blogosphere operate differently as I am in calling bullshit when people try to say it operates differently than it actually does.

What gets my dander up is when someone like Mike (and Shel for that matter) who got to the top of the hill, in part, due to relationships with the Scobles and Winers of the world, tries to say the blogosphere is an equal opportunity place.

It ain’t. Life ain’t either. It’s OK that they ain’t, as long as you don’t try to pretend they are.

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One More Reason Not to Like

What passes for country music these days.

According to Reuters, Troy Gentry, of the country act Montgomery Gentry, has been charged with killing a tame bear named Cubby and then faking a video to make it look like a hunting trophy.

According to Reuters:

“After using a bow and arrow to kill the animal inside its pen, Gentry and the owner of the preserve tagged the bear and registered it with the state as if it had been killed in the wild. A videotape was edited to make it appear that Gentry had hunted down the bear.”

What kind of dude (I’ll resist using the P word) do you have to be to want to shoot a tame, caged bear and dummy up a video to make it look like a hunt?

What’s next, a big game hunting trip to the zoo?

I wonder how many more seconds the “Humane Society Approved” logo will be on the Minnesota Wildlife Connection‘s web site?

I grew up listening to country music, but to my knowledge I have never heard a Montgomery Gentry song. The stuff coming out of Nashville these days sounds more like recycled Dan Fogelberg than Merle Haggard or George Jones.

If he really did this, maybe he’ll have prison in common with Merle Haggard. That would be about it.

Google's Latest Ad Play

I am beginning to think that Google’s business plan is to troll the blogosphere, read about something nifty that someone else is already doing, copy it and hope someone with an actual product to sell will by an ad on it. I guess the fact that approach worked out so well for search has imbedded it in Google’s corporate brain.

That, or this is the lamest attempt yet to attract users to Google Talk.

C|Net reports that Google is now offering to track the music you listen to on your computer and display it for all the world to see. Excuse me, but Last.fm and probably scads of other services do that already. Want to be anonymous, then sign up at Last.fm under the user name Antigone Tellya.

Google calls this service Google Music Trends. What’s next, Google Potty Trends (surely Charmin would advertise)? I bet Sealy Posturpedic is anxiously awaiting Google Sleeping Trends.

Of course in order to use this latest head scratcher, you have to install Google Talk. And taking a page from the Real Network book, opting in to the Google Music Trends setting on Google Talk automatically enables Google Personalized Search.

C|Net nails the true purpose behind this new service:

“One can only imagine that this new tracking would be extremely helpful to advertisers, which can target the latest CD to the people who are listening to that artist’s other work.”

One thing I’ll say about Google- it is consistent.

Knocking Out Norton AV Early

Dwight Silverman on his forthcoming look at antivirus applications: “I am not going to focus on their malware-stopping effectiveness, but rather how well they get along with other programs, user-friendliness and their effects on system performance.”

I predict a last place finish for Norton AntiVirus.

On a related note, I am a long-time Consumer Reports subscriber.  I don’t have any strong feelings one way or another about creating viruses to test anti-virus applications, but most of them claim to be able to identify new viruses by their behavior.  And how else could one test that claim?

UPDATE: Randy Abrams answers my question in a Comment and in this post.

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Morning Reading: 8/17/06

Franco is still dead and Ed Bott still loves Microsoft.  Here’s his latest write up on Live Writer.  I really like Live Writer too, but we need more plugins.

John Koetsler has the best write up yet on the feudal or futile, depending on your point of view, blogosphere.

Mark Evans isn’t drinking the Google Talk kool-aid.  Neither is Ben Metcalfe.  Sounds like feature bloat in search of traction.

Darren gives a lesson on photographing moving targets.  His photo blog, along with Photojojo and Richard Querin‘s series, are my favorite photography how-to blogs.

Tom Reynolds reports on his holiday: “A week without an internet connection is both liberating and leaves me thinking that I’m missing an arm. It’s tough to not have the wisdom of mankind at my fingertips.”

Today would have been my good dog Virgil’s 13th birthday.  He was a good boy.

virgil

Baldur Bjarnason doesn’t think Kiko is worth $50 large.  Maybe not, but what Web 2.0 company is worth the numbers people toss around?

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A New Web 2.0 Exit Strategy

Kiko, an online web calendar has come up with a new exit strategy. If Yahoo or Google doesn’t come calling, try the eBay strategy.

Actually, I think it’s a pretty darn good way to exit a crowded space and would be surprised if some mega-company or funded startup doesn’t pony up something just for the technology and the 40K a month of web traffic. If I were Netvibes, I’d think about spending a little of that mad money (<– that link is tribute that supposedly will lead to some noblesse oblige one day) I just got on a ready-made new feature in my effort to battle My Yahoo for the hearts and minds of the portal crowd.

When I talked a few months ago about taking the corner market approach in the development of Web 2.0 applications, this is the sort of thing I was talking about. While trying to hit the grand slam and get bought by Google for millions is a bad gamble and a worse business plan, some smart guy or gal could make a fine living by developing useful, narrowly crafted applications and selling them for tens of thousands of dollars on eBay. Granted, they won’t be a TechCruch (<– no tribute there, because, well, I don’t want to) darling, but so what.

The Kiko team offers to fly to anywhere in the US and help integrate Kiko into the buyer’s existing site or services for an additional $1500 to cover travel expenses. Again, this sounds like a good deal to me.

One issue, that is noted in the auction description, is how Kiko’s current users will feel about Kiko transferring their data. Kiko has attempted to address this concern by providing account export and deletion options.

Sounds like a pretty good exit strategy to me.

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