RSS and the Solution to the 4% Problem

Scoble has a post today about a Yahoo survey which found that only 4% of internet users are using RSS.

I bet that’s about right since probably 80% of the users only use the internet for email and to check Yahoo for headline news and the weather. In fact, I bet the number of users over 40 who have even heard the term RSS would be measured in basis points, at best. I can tell you that none of my real-world friends knows a thing about RSS. I know because I’ve brought it up a couple of times to blank stares.

RSS is currently the domain of the content producers (newspapers, bloggers, etc.), the technorati (to coin a phrase) and the younger more tech-savvy generation. My kids have very little comprehension of live TV since they watch their 2 videos a day via TIVO- whenever they want. When most of us were kids, there wasn’t even cable TV. My kids have never lived in a world without email- Cassidy got an email from John Perry Barlow (writer of the song she was named after) when she was just days old. When I was a kid, we went to the post office to pick up our snail mail. Things that seemed like science fiction 15 years ago are parts of everyday life now.

The fact that RSS is not being used across the board is not the least bit surprising. But the kids born in 2006 and thereafter will never know a world without it. Reading your first RSS feed today is like getting that first email back in the early nineties. It’s novel, but it won’t be novel for long.

Time is the solution to the 4% problem.

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Why It’s Impossible to Build a New Blog in 2006

impossiblerock

I’ve been tiptoeing around this issue for a couple of months, trying to figure out how to approach it in a positive and diplomatic manner. I’m not sure it’s possible to be all that positive about such a difficult fact of life, but here goes.

It is virtually impossible to build a new blog in 2006. Here’s why I have reached that conclusion over the past year.

First, to have a successful blog, just like any other web site, you need readers. The difference (at least I thought it would be different) is that unlike Yahoo, MSN and Google, blogs are not supposed to be about making money. They are (I thought) supposed to be about having conversations and sharing perspectives and ideas. Sort of a natural evolution of the newsgroup or message board.

But the more I think about it, the less I believe that.

The very large majority of the most successful blogs out there have one of three things working in their favor.

1) They got there first and filled an empty space. I know exactly how that works, since getting there first was a major factor in the growth and success of ACCBoards.Com. Once you are there and fill the space, growth comes organically and it is a lot easier to maintain your position in the space.

2) They have a unique platform that almost guarantees them an audience. If you are the representative of a larger company, especially one that is a player in the blogosphere, your audience comes pre-packaged- from traffic from that company and other bloggers who want to link “upstream.” Granted, you have to deliver to keep and grow that audience, but a ready made group of users is a gigantic (and I believe necessary) advantage to growing a blog.

3) They get help from other established bloggers, either directly via a formal or informal network or because someone with a big audience throws a line to them via links and inter-blog conversations. This is the only way I can see a new, unaffiliated blogger actually growing a blog. Unfortunately, this probably has a lot to do with pre-existing relationships, making the chances of a truly independent blogger being thrown a rope very small.

If you don’t have one of those three things, I believe you are trying to push a heavy rock up a steep hill as far as developing and growing a new blog goes.

Let me be clear about one thing, however. A ready made audience doesn’t guarantee a successful blog. All of these A-Listers have to keep bringing good content to stay at the top. You can have a ready made audience and still not have a successful blog. But I no longer believe you can have a successful blog without a ready made audience.

Why? Because, unfortunately, the blogosphere is a closed system. There are too many people who believe they are going to get rich by writing a blog. Once you add the element of money into the equation, the element of competition soon follows. So you get the haves linking to one another (and largely only to one another) and ignoring (or at best tolerating) the have nots, in an effort to boost their status and, perhaps more importantly, protect their shares of the readership pie. Anyone who argues this isn’t true hasn’t spent much time surfing around the blogosphere.

Yes, there are exceptions. Scoble and JKOnTheRun being two that come to mind. Both seem to be really good guys and both seem to be doing the blog thing for reasons other than the prospect of a dollar. There are others, both A-Listers and not, who simply aren’t interested in adding any more voices to the conversation. Logically, that’s understandable when you look at it from the capitalistic/competitive perspective. But if you believe the blogosphere is or ought to be about conversation and not solely about making money and inflating egos, it’s not good for the blogosphere.

Stated another way, if Firefox, Flickr, and most of the blogging platforms are free, why are links and seats at the table guarded like Fort Knox gold?

Am I talking my position? Am I discouraged and perhaps a little bitter? Probably, I can’t deny that. But I believe I am right about this. And if I don’t write about something that affects me, I’m not writing from my experience- and no one should write from anything else.

So let me briefly dispense with my place in all of this and then move on with the conversation.

I believe my varied experience in programming, web site development, writing, teaching, music making and lawyering gives me a fairly unique perspective on the internet in general and the blogosphere in particular that should be as valued in the blogosphere as it seems to be in the real world (I make my living and give 20-30 speeches a year about one or more of these topics). So, yes, I do feel like stomping my feet and screaming when I can’t fully join the conversations out here. But this is not a problem that is specific to me- and the point I am making here is not about me.

It’s about the ability (or not) of new voices to find a place in the conversations at the virtual watercooler.

Unfortunately, like the real world, sometimes the blogosphere is about who you know as much as what you know.

A lot of bloggers just give up. I can totally relate to that. But I am a fixer and a builder by nature, so giving up isn’t appealing either.

I don’t know the answer, but I know it’s a problem.

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10 Web Trends that Should Die in 2006

Google Blogoscoped posted this list yesterday. I agree with most of it. Here’s my take on the ones I really care about.

1) Splitting Up Articles into Pages

This drives me nuts and will absolutely cause me to stop reading a site even faster that partial feeds will cause me to stop reading a feed. It’s not about pages loading faster, it’s about clicks and ad serving. I agree that this should stop.

2) Artistic Navigation

I don’t mind something artsy as long as I can find my way around. I am amazed at how many sites hide navigational links or dress them up too much. I want finding my way around a website to be like turning a page in a book, not like walking through a museum. If I want art, I’ll get it some place else.

I would add flash pages to this list as well. When I get to one of those flash front door pages, I immediately move along. I can’t tell you how much I disike flash-heavy sites.

3) Spam

Spam will be defeated by technology, not by morality or legislation. If we can put some spammers in jail, I’m all for it. But I rely on good filters to protect me from spam.

4) Writing to Low Bandwidth

I’m sorry the four people still on dial-up can’t efficiently use a web site, but the whole reason most people have high bandwith is for high bandwidth stuff. I agree that we can’t write web sites for dial-up any more.

5) Firefox Hubris

I’m not with them on this one. I was a huge Firefox doubter- until I used it. It’s not really Firefox that is so much better. It’s Firefox plus all the extensions and add-ons.

6) Tiny Fonts

I too am amazed at the sites that are virtually unreadable because of the tiny fonts. Lose them or lose readers.

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Striking a Blow for the CrackBerries

crackberryThe New York Times reports that the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office has issued preliminary rejections of two wireless e-mail patents claimed by NTP, the holding company that has sued Blackberry manufacturer Research in Motion (generally referred to as RIM) over the patent claim.

NTP was incorporated to hold patents on technology developed by Tom Campana. NTP claims that Campana developed a wireless communications system for his pager company that he later patented, and that BlackBerry technology infringes upon that patent.

RIM argues that Campana’s wireless technology is different than that used with BlackBerries because it only allows users to read and print e-mail, as opposed to compose, reply to and forward emails.

This has been a battle that threatens the ability of BlackBerry addicts everywhere to read their emails over lunch and furiously thumb replies as if the future of the world was at stake. George A. Romero has reportedly optioned the rights to make a horror movie based on all the conversations the BlackBerry addicts would be forced to have during lunch should NTP prevail in its efforts to shut down BlackBerry networks.

Stay tuned for more as it develops.

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Call for Good Blogs: Update 1

I’ve gotten a few suggestions as a result of my call for good blogs. Keep ’em coming.

One of them was a link to Tyner Blain, a consulting firm that focuses on requirements management and other IT matters.

They have a post about the Juicy Studio Readability Test, which I tried the other day, leading to a bunch of big words in this post. I needed to get my Flesch Reading Ease score out of the Dick and Jane level and into the suggested 60 to 70 range.

I like the Tyner Blain blog the way I like Doc Searls‘ blog- I don’t understand a lot of it, but there’s good writing by smart people there. So I read and learn.

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The Tablet Rules

And we’re not talking about the ten commandments either.

Tony Chung over at Tablet PC Blogs dumped his huge laptop in favor or a Toshiba M200 Tablet PC, and talks about how it has improved and organized his life.

He uses it to take notes in class, to read at a coffee shop, to organize his notes and other content, to make sketches- and it even takes dictation!

As I have found with my Thinkpad X41 Tablet PC, a tablet can do anything a regular laptop can do. And it can do it more places because it is lighter, easier to carry and has the ability to easily convert from regular laptop mode to slate mode.

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Web 2.0: There, I Said It

I made a secret promise to myself months ago that I would not use the phrase “Web 2.0” here because it sounded too much like “pre-owned cars.” Just another fancy sounding slogan created by marketers somewhere to entice people into believing it’s something more than it really is.

But Reuters has an article today that actually brought the whole Web 2.0 thing into focus for me. Rather than try to describe it (and thereby irritate me all over again), the article uses examples. Those examples are TypePad, Flickr and Del.icio.us. The article sums up Web 2.0 this way: “hosted online, relying heavily on users’ submissions, and frequently updated and tweaked by their owners.”

Anyone who reads this site knows that I think Flickr is the greatest thing going right now. I also use Del.icio.us daily. Add in some others like Technorati, Memeorandum and all the blogs I read and it becomes pretty apparent that pretty much my entire internet experience these days is all about Web 2.0.

It also becomes clear that Web 2.0 is a close cousin of the decentralization of media content that I am so interested in. The results of the process are more important than the name of the process, so I guess I better start looking at and thinking about this Web 2.0 business.

One of the issues with Web 2.0 is that people become dependent on remotely hosted services which, because of scale and other issues, occasionally (and sometime more often than that) have outages. When I can’t make a post here or see photos or find good content to read because my blogging platform, Flickr or Technorati is down or acting up, it really bugs me. Web 2.0 moves in real time, and the reliability of these services will be one of the major testing grounds for their success. Given all of the changes that have occurred over the past year or so that lead to the Web 2.0 movement and that have spurred its incredible growth, however, we users have to accept and understand (at least for a while and to a point) that outages and hiccups will accompany the growing pains. Del.icio.us’s frequent outages since it was bought by Yahoo are annoying now, but in order to be stable and scalable later, there have to be repairs and maintenance now. That’s the order of well managed things- both on the web and in the real world.

We’ve just begun the Web 2.0 movement and I am certain there are a lot more treats in store for us. But the price for enjoying this new technology is the bumps along the way. It seems to me that’s a pretty fair price.

Since I am so in favor of the concept behind Web 2.0, I guess I have to cowboy up (as I sometimes tell my kids) and use the dreaded word.

Just don’t make me call my large, ornate cabinet an armoire.

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ScobleFeeds A-Z: The J’s

This is part ten of my A-Z review of Scoble‘s feeds. The rules and criteria are here.

There are a lot of good ones in the J’s, so we have another tie:

J-Walk Blog
(RSS Feed)

Jake Ludington’s MediaBlab (RSS Feed)

J-Walk Blog, John Walkenbach’s blog, has politics, humor, current events and photography. It’s always a good read and occasionally I find something hilarious there. Good stuff.

Jake Ludington’s MediaBlab promises audio and video answers for your digital lifestyle and delivers. There is a lot of useful information packed into this blog. If you’re into digital technology, this is a must read.

Honorable Mention:

JKOnTheRun
(RSS Feed) (ineligible because I already read it daily; otherwise it would be the hands down winner)

The Jason Calacanis Weblog
(RSS Feed) (ineligible because I already read it daily)

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About the Newspapers of Tomorrow

picardreadingAlong the lines of the “move to the edge” we’ve been talking about recently, Business Week has an article today describing the newspaper of tomorrow.

One of the themes of the article is a more local focus and the use of readers to create and promote content. Techdirt sums it up by saying the newpaper of tomorrow will look like the web of today.

This is all very consistent with the movement away from the gatekeeper status long enjoyed by the mainstream media towards locally focused, community based content sites. The great thing about it is that since most of this stuff will be online, it will be possible to create overlapping communities based on interests, expertise and affiliation as well as by geography.

The move to the edge will localize things, but not solely by geography. Another thing to like about the move to the edge.

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Web Site Traffic and the Almighty Link

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes (the PC Doctor) wrote a story over at Problogger about how he doubled his blog traffic in 30 days.

Here’s how he did it with my commentary, then I’ll talk a little about my experiences:

1) He tagged his posts with Technorati tags.

I do that as well, and have for some time. Technorati is a great way to find both articles you want to read as well as people to read your articles. Around 8% of the traffic to Newsome.Org comes from Technorati. More almost certainly comes indirectly via links from other blogs who found Newsome.Org via Technorati.

Still I wonder how many non-bloggers use Technorati to find content? I hope a lot, but I bet a lot of Technorati users have blogs of their own. I hope over time non-bloggers will use it more and more as a springboard for blog content.

2) He leveraged his existing website by linking to his blog.

I do this a little, but my biggest website, ACCBoards.Com, is a sports site, and I don’t post much about sports here (because this is a tech/music, etc. site AND because my network agreement with Scout.Com says I can’t). So even though I have access to a ton of readers via ACCBoards.Com, it’s a little harder to leverage off of that site because of the content differences. One thing I am considering doing in 2006 is adding a reference to my blog in my speakers bio, so people will hear about it when I’m introduced at conventions, speeches, etc. But again, the content is not a perfect match and the crossover will be limited by that fact.

3) He used trackbacks.

I use trackbacks some, but honestly not that much. Most people I link to find out anyway via Technorati or otherwise and some link back to me. I may reconsider trackbacks in 2006 and start using them more. I would love to hear thoughts, pro and con, about trackbacks via comments (see below for the comments link).

My experience building (and continuing to build) this blog has been both rewarding and a little frustrating. While my traffic and subscriber count have grown slowly but steadily, it’s hard to keep up the momentum (boy is it hard). Too often blog growth feels like farming rocky ground. You plant the content and wait for the traffic to grow. Sometimes it does, but sometimes it seems like an uphill battle. Like farming, increasing blog traffic depends on a lot of variables you can’t control.

And the most important variable? Inbound links from other blogs and websites. I am certain about this.

To grow a blog you simply have to find a way to attract inbound links. You need a “content web” that leads readers from one site to another as they follow a conversation. Ideally, you want these readers to join in the conversation via comments and trackbacks. But it all starts with links.

Attracting inbound links is hard, though.

I still don’t feel comfortable asking someone for a link. For better or worse this is a fact, even though I enjoy it when I get an email fishing for one (and most of the time give one). I asked for links in my Christmas List (and got some- thanks all), but even writing that list felt a little uncomfortable. A lot of the experts say it’s OK to ask for a link as long as you do it the right way, but it just feels odd to me.

I’d rather just write good posts and wait for the links to grow naturally. But that takes time and it’s easy to get discouraged. Maybe I’m selling myself and all the effort I expend here short by taking this approach. Who knows?

I guess what I’m saying is that if you want to build your traffic organically, you have to work hard and be very, very patient. I’m trying, but it’s hard.

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