Lost Horizon: Online Utopias, But for Whom?

Dwight Silverman has posted an interesting conversation he had with Steve Rubel on Twitter about blogging and the effect of social networks and related applications.  Steve has been spending an increasing amount of time using services like Twitter and Facebook, and as a result hasn’t been blogging as much.  Dwight, on the other hand, is still excited about the blogging movement and believes, correctly in my opinion, that thanks to RSS, blogging has the most powerful API of all.

Dwight sums up my thoughts on the penetration of Twitter, etc. very nicely:

One of the dangers of keeping obsessive track of new things is forgetting that not everyone rides the cutting edge. Rubel’s been thinking that, because he’s all into Facebook and Twitter, that the majority of Internet users are, too.

You could write an encyclopedia on that statement.  Sometimes I feel like I have.  More and more, the tech-invested internet (we can’t just refer to the blogosphere any more, as more and more people spend time behind the walls of the various social networks) seems to be comprised of a lot of grownups playing with toys and trying to convince the relatively few skeptics (and, of course, the entire non-tech population) that those toys are world-changing business tools.  I’ve never understood that, and I still don’t.  Sure, there are the Chalmers Bryants talking their position as they scramble for their share of the gold.  But there are more than a few folks with no direct skin in the game who seem to be drinking the kool-aid too.

Let me say it once more…

Nobody, and I mean N-O-B-O-D-Y, in the real business world has the slightest idea what Twitter is, and if you tried to tell them, they wouldn’t be the slightest bit interested.  Oh, unless they were in some corporate IT department- they’d be interested then, but only because they’d have to remember to block Twitter along with the free email and porn sites.  And even if they didn’t, heavy use of Twitter at work would be about the same as heavy eBay use.  Not a career enhancing move.

Steve says that the action is moving away from blogs and towards applications like Twitter and Jaiku.  He agrees that RSS is a powerful API, but says it’s limited, in that it only communicates one way.  The problem with that argument, of course, is that unless other users elect to “follow” you, Twitter, etc. is also one way communication.  Even if I had been on Twitter today, I couldn’t have participated in Dwight and Steve’s conversation, because I quit following Steve due to my Pink Floyd Policy.  In other words, I could elect to read what Steve and certain others have to say, but I can’t participate.  Email is more two way than Twitter- at least if I email someone, I can be reasonably certain they’ll see it.

Dwight’s thesis is that AOL, the grandfather of social networks, died because it became irritating to users- many of whom were happy to get their feet wet in the internet’s kiddie pool, but later became unhappy when they wanted to do more – and access more- than the walled-in AOL would accommodate.  I’ve been using Facebook for about 3 months, and I’m already frustrated with it.  I feel like Rodney Dangerfield in Back to School every time I log in, and I find the interface to be very confusing and non-intuitive.

In other words, it’s a little irritating.  Why is this fact wildly ignored by so many bloggers and former bloggers?  By so many, I mean the hundred or so people who write all Shangra-La about Facebook and the other social networks.

Again, I just don’t get it.

Nor, I suspect, do the very large majority of the other grownups who get up and trundle off to work every morning- more worried about paying the bills than using the latest Facebook application.

As I wrote the other day, I find my application usage to be shrinking, rather than growing.  I simply don’t have time to have all the fun that people claim to be having at Facebook, Second Life, Twitter, Pownce, etc.  Plus, every minute I spend writing there is a minute that both dilutes the brand I am trying to build at my blog and inures almost exclusively to the benefit of whoever thinks they’re going to get rich by selling Facebook, etc. to Google or some Google wannabe.

Sure, I think it’s nice to have “friends” on Facebook.  Yes, I log in once in a while to see what’s going on behind the walls.  But all of that is ancillary to my greater online purpose: blogging outside the walls.  With other people.  In a conversation open to the world.  No walls, no silly jargon.

Dwight asks if blogging is passe.

Blogging has always been so 20 minutes ago- that’s one of the things I like about it.  From the day Dave Winer invented it (along with just about everything else, it often seems), it has been a niche activity that serves a meaningful purpose- allowing regular folks like us to share and distribute information more efficiently- but for a limited number of people.  When people get all exercised about all of the social networks and related applications, they are not only diluting their personal brands, they are diluting the entire blogging movement.  A movement that the rest of the world has only just begun to notice.  At a time when we could be bringing blogging to the masses, we have lost our way and scattered our meager ranks across all manner of disparate and desperate locales.  I think that’s the most troubling part of the application du jour internet mentality.

We are dispersing when we ought to be gathering.

The problem, of course, comes down to money.  No one is going to get rich because more people start blogging.  But if you can convince enough people to come to your web site, create a ton of content for free and, most importantly, get served a bunch of ads (note I didn’t say watch them, because nobody does), then you might make some money one day.

In the meantime, I’ll be here blogging.  Once in a while I’ll visit the communities that form behind the walls, but they will never be my home.

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The New York Times and the Twitter as a Business Thing

The New York Times has an article about Twitter.  Before I dive into the substance of the article, let me note that the article is in the Your Money section of the paper.  Once again, folks are trying to divine business from cool.  This is a problem for two reasons.  One, it won’t work.  Two, it insults cool.  Cool is cool.

The best thing about the article is that it almost explained to me the difference between a friend and a follower.  I’m not a read the manual kind of guy, so I still don’t really know the fine points of that distinction.

Scoble gets some much needed coverage, since it’s been at least 15 seconds since we last read about the Michael Jordan of the blogosphere.  I mean that in a good way (Scoble is good at the blogging thing, video camera notwithstanding) and a bad way (Jordan so dominated the NBA during his career than lots of fans got bored with it).

I also learned that Twitter was founded by Evan Williams.  I suppose George Dickel founded Jaiku.  Just kidding.

In the article, Evan sums up what he thinks Twitter should be thustly: “Twitter is best understood as a highly flexible messaging system that swiftly routes messages, composed on a variety of devices, to the people who have elected to receive them in the medium the recipients prefer. It is a technology that encourages a new mode of communication.”

Doesn’t that sound better than a billboard for A-Listers to broadcast a link to their latest blog post?  Don’t we have RSS feeds for that?

It also sounds pretty businessly.  I agree about the new mode of communication part, but let’s not forget about the cool part.

As we know, some folks don’t like Twitter.  Some cat named Bruce Sterling channeled Emily Bronte and came up with this nugget:

Using Twitter for literate communication is about as likely as firing up a CB radio and hearing some guy recite “The Iliad.”

Note to Bruce: I suspect most people who fire up a CB are more into Homer Simpson than Homer the Greek.  I suspect most people who fire up Twitter feel the same way.  I also think that’s a funny statement coming from a science fiction writer.  Twitter doesn’t have to be all PBS to be fun and useful.

It also doesn’t have to be a business, since Evan is a “serial entrepreneur who made his fortune by selling Pyra Labs, the creator of Blogger, a popular blog publishing tool, to Google in 2003.”  I didn’t know that, but I’m glad.  Since he doesn’t need the money, maybe Twitter will survive the migration of the herd.

Unfortunately, the Web 2.0 stakeholders are still trying to figure out how to make all these hobbies into businesses.  The article ends  by wondering “whether the service can be made into a sustainable business.”

Who cares.  It doesn’t matter.

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Twitterage

Twitter-Logo-150x150

Here’s a little link love for my current Twitter list:

BlogBloke
Brad Kellett
Corey Akula
Chris Carfi
Gabe Rivera
James Kendrick
Martin Gordon
Mathew Ingram
Miles Evenson
Randy Morin
Ric Hayman
Richard Querin
Rick Mahn
Steve Gillmor
Stowe Boyd
Susan Getgood
Warner Crocker

People I’d like to add
(If I knew their Twitter ID)

Chip Camden
Dave Wallace
Dwight Silverman
Earl Moore
Ethan Johnson
Frank Gruber
Fraser Kelton
Karl Martino
Mike Miller
Nick Carr
Seth Finkelstein
Steve Newson
Tom Morris
Tom Reynolds
Zoli Erdos

Removed per my Pink Floyd Policy:***

Dave Winer
Fred Wilson
Hugh Macleod
Robert Scoble
Steve Rubel

*** I still subscribe to all of these blogs and, with the exception of Scoble’s self-Trumanization, I enjoy them.  As I discussed the other day, I want my Twitter experience to be different from the larger blogosphere- I don’t want anyone talking to me unless I have the ability to talk back to them.

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Just Nod if You Can Hear Me…

justnodOne negative thing I have noticed about Twitter is that my Twitter page is filling up with conversations I can’t participate in because I follow people who don’t follow me.  Sort of like the blogosphere all over again.

My new policy: I’m going to remove people from my list who don’t reciprocate.

We already engage in one-way conversations in the blogosphere.  I want my Twitter experience to be better than that.

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The Politics of Twittering

I have moved from thinking that Twitter is merely cool to thinking that it’s very cool, and that there may be more real world uses for it than I originally thought.  There will be challenges, for sure.  But the potential to create a new communication medium is huge.

There are a ton of people using Twitter, and more sign up every day.  I know from our early ACCBoards.Com days how hard it is to keep up with a ton of new traffic.  We started out as a little message board for ACC sports fans.  Suddenly, we were on the local news, then we got mentioned on ESPN, then players and high profile recruits began to post messages.  Traffic went off the charts and our servers crashed.  And crashed.  You hope the traffic explosion will happen, and you think you’ve planned for it.  But when traffic starts growing geometrically, you end up throwing your assumptions out the door and just try to hang on.

Managing the traffic load will be a problem for Twitter, but not the biggest challenge.

The biggest challenge for Twitter will be figuring what it wants to become.  With traffic comes the opportunity to make good decisions, and the opportunity to make bad ones.  And a lot of people will come out of the woodwork to help you make bad ones.

Will Twitter be happy being a popular and useful communication tool?  Or will it try to recreate itself as some sort of business tool in the hopes of attracting some business dollars?  I hope the former, but history tells us there will be pressure to try to become the latter.

If I owned Twitter, I’d stay the popular and useful communication tool course until I slayed the competition – much like Google did with search.  The first rule of interactive online communities is you have to own the space.  Once you own the space, you can worry about rule number two.  TechCrunch is the blogosphere’s best example of the application of the first rule.

Along the way, I’d periodically add new and complimentary features to keep Twitter on the minds of the technorati and on the pages of Technorati.  Private Twitter groups, for sure.  Perhaps topical groups.  I’d add a photo feature, maybe by teaming up with up and comer Zooomer.

Mostly, I would concentrate on doing a few things very well and avoid the dilutive urge to add new features for the sake of adding new features.

Twitter users will face challenges too.  The biggest one will be deciding how to use Twitter.  As a mini-blog, as a shared IM substitute, as a message board.  Or as some combination of the three.  With traffic and popularity will come the disrupters.  The spammers.  The foul, cruel and bad-tempered rodents.  Tim O’Reilly to tell us how to deal with them.  How will we deal with those problems?

The only captcha for that sort of thing is a healthy combination of common sense and self governance.  If someone treats their Twitter account as a billboard for spam or self promotion, users will have to decide whether to stand by and watch or vote with their follow list.  Ideally, one’s follow list will eventually equate to one’s eBay number.  But for this to work, we have to make Twitter a different place than the blogosphere at large.

If Twitter becomes nothing more than a pocket sized version of the blogosphere, everyone loses.

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Why I’m Not Buying Twitter

Twitter-Logo-150x150Steve Rubel has a post setting forth 3 reasons why Twitter will be sold soon.  I’ve been watching Twitter for a while.  I just signed up (see the box in the right column).  It’s a cool little application, but here are 3 reasons why I respectfully disagree with Steve.

1) Twitter is growing by leaps and bounds- no doubt about it.  It is the app de jour for the blogging crowd, which as I have said a million times before is sort of like being the favorite book of the Yeti crowd.  You hear a lot about Yeti if you happen to be in Nepal, but Yeti is a non-factor for most of the people in the world.  I also wonder how many of the current Twitter groupies will stay the course over the coming weeks and months as the new app de jours come and go.  If I were going to bet on someone getting bought, it would be Jott.  Now there is an application that I find really useful.  People in the real world will find Jott useful.

2) My reason number 2 is also Steve’s reason number 2: Twitter doesn’t monetize its audience.  It shares that inconvenient truth with about 99% of the rest of Web 2.0.  As soon as Google buys Twitter and starts trying to cram more ads down our throat (or collect more of our personal data), a lot of users will bolt.  Stated another way, the “I dig it” threshold is much lower for a garage project like Twitter is now than it is for yet another Google attempt to increase ads and decrease privacy.  Some one should go back and look at last years’ darlings and see how many of them have monetized their traffic.  And how many of them are out of business.

3) While Twitter is probably cheap, there is a reason for that.  If there were an obvious way to monetize its buzz, it wouldn’t be.  Even the Web 2.0 market is somewhat efficient.  It’s the big, seemingly insane buys (YouTube, MySpace, etc.) that end up prolonging the cycle and generating cash, or at least the potential for cash.  I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry about that, but it’s true.  These great little apps like Twitter have a hard time finding a place in the VC arena where everyone is trying to hit home runs.  Like Tony La Russa said, you can win a lot of games with doubles and singles, but most of the money gurus have forgotten this.

I like Twitter.  I’ll probably use it for a while.  But it’s not something I like enough to pay for or to suffer through ads for.

So unless some Mighty Casey with a lot of money to spend decides to take another stout swing, I think Twitter will have to settle for being cool.

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