The Shadeless Future of the Traditional Newspaper

Things are going great, and they’re only getting better
I’m doing all right, getting good grades
The future’s so bright
I gotta wear shades, I gotta wear shades

– Timbuk3

Mark Evans, who works for one, has some thoughts about the shadeless future of traditional newspapers. His post was inspired by a speech he heard by Jeff Cole, who heads a team at the University of Southern California that has collected data about internet usage for the past six years.

I have posted several times about newspapers and their dire need to reinvent themselves in the face of their three biggest threats:

1) the internet as a distribution channel that more and more people prefer over a trip to the front yard;

2) eBay/Craigslist and the loss of the classified ads revenue stream (even the non-geeks I know use eBay, etc. to find something they used to look for in the classifieds); and

3) citizen journalism (bloggers and other writers who bypass the newspapers and go straight to the audience).

There are still a ton of people who strongly prefer newspapers. So the old papers have time to evolve. But any doubt about the future of content distribution should have been addressed by the movement online we have witnessed over the past few years. The decision by more and more papers to stop running stock quotes daily is evidence of the inevitable.

But newspapers still have a few things in their corner.

First, talent. If they can redeploy their writers under some new-media structure, they can outwrite most of us amateur hacks without breaking a sweat.

Second, the marketing industry. The marketing industry is based largely on ad creation and placement. Everyone with two brain cells to rub together knows the internet advertising thing is both cyclical and unstable. People simply don’t watch TV ads any more. Radio ads are killing traditional radio. That leaves print advertising.

If the newspapers will let them, the marketing industry will save them. But the newspapers have to play ball by allowing themselves to be recreated as a largely online animal. Sure, the NYT can become a weekly magazine and survive. Other papers can become weekly papers and survive for a while.

But the newspaper gig is up, and the papers who admit it and get ahead on the evolutionary curve are the ones who will make it.

Remember- you don’t have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun the other guy.

Disney: One Tentative Step Towards the Present

I have never understand and still do not understand why putting otherwise free content on the internet is even an issue. If I were in charge of a TV network, I’d have started streaming my content back in the nineties. All of it.

If someone can receive my shows over the air for crying out loud and for free for crying out loud, what, exactly, is it that I am trying to preserve by treating this content like it’s some sort of national treasure? People have been recording and time-shifting network television since the VCR went mainstream in the early eighties.

TV networks have been hiding in the past for a couple of reasons.

One, there are a lot more content producers chasing the same number of viewers, so business expectations required that the networks proceed with caution to avoid giving away a potential revenue source. The record labels have already begun a de facto movement aimed at forcing consumers to pay for the same content multiple times.

The networks can’t really do that, since the content is primarily ad-based and has always been available for free. A corollary to the Billy Preston Rule makes it hard for the networks to take the record labels’ approach ($0 multiplied by anything is still $0).

Second, the networks were incredibly slow to appreciate the power of the internet. I’m still not sure they fully understand that the internet is a distribution method, not some mystical new business model.

Disney seems to have figured some of this out, and has announced that it will begin to stream some of its most popular shows, including Lost and Desperate Housewives at no cost to viewers. Note that the content will be streamed and that there will be non-skippable ads. Streaming gives Disney comfort (false perhaps) that it is not allowing the content to roam freely on the world “wild” web, and ads pay at least some of the costs of providing the content online.

It is important to note that this is being described as a two month trial period. Think of Disney as the Groundhog in late January. It’s about to peek out from its hole, but anything dark and scary might send it running back to a safe offline place.

Which means that I hope someone has prepared the Disney executives for the inevitable recording and redistribution of the streams. There is a way to record anything you can see or hear over a computer- and you can be sure someone will do it. I hope Disney doesn’t get spooked by that or we could be in for many more weeks of network internet-avoidance.

Just remember Disney- people can also record and redistribute content they receive over the air. The internet is no different. Say it with me. It is no different.

I think if Disney stays the course, we’ll see all of its network content online before too long. Being the first network to bow to the inevitable should and hopefully will pay off in the end.

Of course the real losers in this game are the vendors like iTunes who have been grasping for a way to make some money by reselling network content to the 10 people who actually watch TV shows on their iPods. I suppose those 10 people can still buy the right to do so, but this gives the rest of us a way to watch a show if our TIVOs crash (which, as we all know, they often do).

I’m excited about this and I applaud Disney for being at least a little progressive.

More from:

Dwight Silverman
Mathew Ingram
GMSV

CyberSalon: It’s Not the Writing that Matters

It’s the control over the distribution of the writing.

Scott Rosenberg, who is rapidly becoming one of my favorite reads, has more today on the recent Berkeley CyberSalon.

The audio from the meetup can be heard via Andrew Keen’s AfterTV podcast (thanks to Sabine for the heads up via a Comment). It is a little over an hour’s worth of mostly interesting conversation, and if you doubt that Steve Gillmor has the best handle on the blogosphere, one listen will erase any doubt. He is one smart, to the point dude. My Gillmor Gang envy keeps on growing.

Anyway, Scott is responding to a post by long-time blogger Rebecca Blood in response to Scott’s initial report from the Berkeley meetup.

Rebecca’s Take

Rebecca’s point is that traditional publishing is about printing books and articles they can sell, which has little to do with finding the most well written material:

When publishers evaluate a book proposal, they don’t ask if the work is true or original or insightful or well-written. First and foremost, they ask themselves if they can sell it. If they don’t think they can, they pass. If they believe there is a market and that they can effectively market the work, they buy it.

Scott’s Take

Scott mostly agrees with Rebecca, but draws a distinction between the business side of publishing and the editorial side:

Most editors wouldn’t be so imprudent as to claim that they are publishing “the best” anything; usually, they’ll talk about trying to publish “the best” that they can find for their particular readers. The most effective editors have an accurate sense of who those readers are and what they want.

My Take

First of all, as someone who has written a ton of newspaper and trade journal articles, my experience has been that most editors are looking for something interesting to publish, period. Perhaps this isn’t the case at the New York Times and its ilk, but most publications are hungry for stuff to publish. Whether they will admit that or not is another story, but it’s true.

Initially, there is a process that is at least somewhat designed to locate (a) something well written that (b) fits the focus of the publication.

Veteran writers know the focus of the publications they write for and can generally hit the nail on the head focus-wise on the first try. If you’re an unknown, the bar is higher and the writing must be more compelling to pass muster. If you are a recognized name or authority, the bar gets lowered a little. Perhaps a little ironic, perhaps not. But true.

I’m no John Markoff (and far, far from it), but when I write an article, I have little to no doubt I can get it published by one publication or another. More times than not, it’s the first one I offer it to.

The first couple of articles are sort of tough, but after you’ve been doing it a while, you realize it’s just not that hard to get publications to use your stuff.

Granted, I am not writing to make a living (it’s more of a marketing thing for me), but I have been doing it for a long time and I have to believe my experience mirrors that of many others.

But It’s Not About the Writing

My bottom line on all of this, however, is that everyone has it a little wrong. We’ve been talking about the right things, but not from the correct angle.

Old media is not in crisis because we are writing our blogs. Old media is in crisis because of a two step process is taking away its stranglehold on the distribution of writing. The easy analogy is the record labels and the way they grasp at the catless bag in the face of new distribution channels for music that bypass the labels. Like traditional newspapers, the record labels are in the twilight of their relevance.

So back to the newspapers.

First eBay and Craigslist take away a chunk of the beloved classified ads and that long-standing revenue stream.

Now bloggers (which include not only morons like us, but also geniuses like Andrew Keen) are chipping away at the content distribution model. There is a lessening of the need for a middleman to direct content to us. We can produce, publish, find, read and reply to it ourselves.

And this trend is in its infancy. It will continue and, if the traditional newspapers don’t adapt, it will make them economically infeasible. That’s part of the basis of my 8 Steps to Save the Merc post.

So it’s not about the writing, and it’s not about the quality of the writing. It’s about the loss of control of the distribution of the writing.

A Perfect Storm: Andrew Keen at the Berkeley CyberSalon

If there was any hope that Andrew Keen was only kidding a few weeks ago when he laid this nugget on us:

If you democratize media, then you end up democratizing talent. The unintended consequence of all this democratization, to misquote Web 2.0 apologist Thomas Friedman, is cultural ‘flattening.’,

such hope was crushed by Keen’s statements at the recent Berkeley CyberSalon.

Christopher Carfi posts a report from that gathering that makes it clear that Keen is still preaching that blogging allows idiots too much of the soapbox that should be reserved for the old media elite.

If I’d been there and managed not to hurl all over my laptop, I would have raised my hand and asked him two questions:

(a) Who decides who is elite? Is merely a press pass from a newspaper evidence of elite status or is there more to it?

(b) Are you one of the elite? If so, who anointed you such? And if not, aren’t you adding to the problem by having a blog?

The first thing I ask myself when someone tries to create a line of demarcation (elite, non-elite, etc.) is “who decides where the line goes” and “who decides who decides where the line goes.” Those two questions will help you cut through more bullshit than any other questions you could ask.

Scott Rosenberg has a report on the CyberSalon as well, which contains some past and present Keen quotes:

The purpose of our media and culture industries is to discover, nurture, and reward elite talent.

What is the value in sharing experiences? I grow weary of your scribblings.

Clearly this guy is either the most arrogant person to ever poke at a keyboard or he’s found an angle and is going to ride it as far as it will take him. I don’t know him, but he certainly seems to have come upon a recipe of arrogance, big fancy words and outlandish statements that gets him a lot of attention.

My grandmother used to tell me that arrogance was a distraction to mask insecurity, but she wasn’t part of the elite media, so what did she know.

Scott sums up the recent non-conversation very well:

To Keen, that sort of talk is part of a “cult of creative self-realization.” “The purpose of our media and culture industries,” he writes, “is to discover, nurture, and reward elite talent”; blogging opens the door to too many mediocre voices. When he tried to apply this critique tonight, Des Jardins shot it down with a single line that exposed its irrelevance to the conversation: “The cream also rises in the blogosphere.”

In the interest of cooking the whole pancake, let me say that I agree with some of what Andrew says on his blog, particularly the Web 2.0 stuff. He has this need to make sure you know how smart he thinks he is, but once you filter out the extra noise, a lot of what he says is spot on. And, perhaps intentionally and perhaps not, he can be very funny (as in his MySpace take).

But he’s completely off base on the whole elite media business.

Oddly enough, my hunch is that he knows it.

How to Save the Merc in 8 Easy Steps

There’s a lot of talk in the blogosphere about the Save the Merc campaign launched by some of the writers of the San Jose Mercury News in the hopes of finding a buyer who will save the newspaper.

First, I think the Mercury News is a good paper and while I don’t read any newspapers in their native online or offline format, it has been a bookmark of mine for a long time.

The reality is that the Merc can’t be saved. Not in its current format. Because traditional newspapers are in the twilight of relevance and the verge of obsolescence. In one of my favorite quotes of the year so far, Steve Rubel summed up the future thusly:

Flash forward 10 years from today. We will look back and laugh how quaint it was that we received our news on dead trees. Yes, I am saying the word “newspaper” will be a misnomer. News will be delivered automatically each day, not by the paper boy, but via wirelessly enabled e-paper devices that are easy to read. All of it will be powered by RSS.

If someone wants to really save the Merc, here’s exactly how to do it:

1) The first thing we do, is kill all the pop-up ads. A hip, forward thinking organization should know better.

2) Drop the print version. Gone. No More. Nada.

3) Go completely online. Sell text-based and static ads. No flash and no pop-ups. Require a free registration to get most (but not all) content online and require free subscribers to accept one email per day with special subscriber features and, of course, targeted ads.

4) Create a premium subscription, required to get all content, including some audio-video content. Sell these subscriptions for something close to the cost of a current newspaper subscription. In addition to all content, this will include the ability to search archives at no additional cost and some sort of bookmarking, tagging feature for future reference.

5) Create a complete RSS feed of the paper, organized by section- just like the print edition (Front Page, Local, Business, Sports, etc.). This would be a better organized version of the many RSS feeds that are already available. Create an online application that will allow subscribers to customize their subscription feed to include just the parts they want. The idea would be that each user could receive a custom edition of the paper via a single RSS feed.

6) Sell that feed as a subscription (as an alternative to the online edition and with a discount for people who want both the online and RSS editions). This is the future of news distribution, and the place to spend the most time and effort.

7) No adds in these feeds. None.

8) Once you make this move and perfect the online delivery of news, create a subsidiary to sell transition services to every other newspaper in the world as they follow you online.

This is the way to save the Merc.

Whether the saving is done by the new owner or some other owner, who likely would not be a traditional newspaper company, doesn’t really matter. What matters is that one of the best newspapers in one of the most tech focused parts of the world with the highest percentage of tech readers is available to blaze the trail into the future of news distribution.

So someone should step up to the plate and do it.

Everything else is either delaying the inevitable or wishful thinking.

Amen, Brother!

Stowe Boyd nails the whole noisy blogosphere thing. He says it perfectly. There’s nothing I can add so let me quote reverently one passage:

It has become the conventional wisdom to reel off those sorts of pronouncements in conference halls and hallways, and lament the loss of… what, exactly? A halcyon era when the front page of the regional paper and the news anchors on the three major channels fed us their take on the news? A simpler, more bucolic blogosphere a few years back when only a few hundred people were posting?

And his conclusion is even better.

Stowe’s post has my vote for post of the year so far. Go read it.

Cloudy Water in the Thinktank

If there’s anything I understand less than all these conferences and unconferences and all the fuss over who gets to speak and who doesn’t, it’s the thinktank. I imagine it as a gathering of navel gazers, with a big dose of arrogance thrown in.

So all these brainiacs are sitting around thinking about the next mensa convention, when all of the sudden the silence is broken by a high pitched, nasal sound.

Brainiac One: “I’ve got it! Everyone else in the world who thinks that net neutrality is a good idea is wrong! Net neutrality is bad! Yeah, that’s it. Bad. Bad, I tell you!”

Brainiac Two: “Well, if everyone says it’s good and we say it’s good too, then what good is our thinktank?”

Brainiac Three: “Good point, Rothschild, we must do out part to eradicate net neutrality. Let’s all think about how we can do that.”

[hours and hours of tense silence]

Brainiac Two: “I have it! Let’s write a report that says net neutrality is stealing! Let’s throw some words in there like regulatory and infrastructure, and, if possible, a few latin phrases.”

Brainiac One: “Yes, if we publish said report, people will talk about it and they will bow down before our tiding.”

Janitor (who has a masters degree, but not mutliple PhD’s) [looks up from sweeping the floor]: “Yeah, and that there will also compy with that durned old Rule of the Reallies becaus’n some o’ dose idgits will thunk it’s wrong!”

Brainiac Three: “Harcourt, go take out the trash and let us smart guys do the thinking. Besides, we are above publicity. It would be beneath us to take an absurd position just for the attention we would get.”

Brainiac Four: “Fellows, I urge that we table this important discourse for an hour as our navels need a break.”

This is Not the Summer Camp I Remember

Deconstructing Dave

So Dave and Scoble (still on his Memeorandum hiatus) were talking. They agreed that the blogosphere has become as flammable as mailing lists and usenet newsgroups. I don’t really agree with that, but this isn’t a poll.

Dave says there are some topics that you can’t talk about without inciting a flame-war, and he does his best not to incite one by not mentioning what those topics are. At least not directly.

Then he says there aren’t many people doing the flaming, but that they control discourse because they control who gets to “speak at the conferences.”

Ah, conferences. Camps, mashups, gatherings, happening, Techcrunches. We’re back on the “my nerd camp is better than your nerd camp thing,” with an ironic twist of Gatekeeping thrown in for good measure.

I have some questions about these conferences that I hope someone will answer for me.

Maybe these Conferences are…Different

But let me digress just a little. I typically give between 15-20 speeches a year. Not in Mike Arrington‘s back yard- I’ll never make it on that invitation list. Rather, I speak at conferences, seminars and conventions about boring things like real estate development and the music business. These events are attended by people in the business, but not really because they are the place to be seen or because they are more fun than a party at Mike’s place.

The truth is that people attend them primarily to meet the continuing education requirements mandated by their licensing state. Sure, there’s a lot of networking at some of the big ones, but most of the time getting required continuing education hours is the focus.

Of course, this guarantees an audience as people who would prefer to be elsewhere have to get so many hours of continuing education a year.

I speak at these events not because I think they’re more fun than Disneyland, but because sometimes people hear me speak and then hire me to do their legal work. It’s marketing, plain and simple.

The Cost of Being Seen

Which brings me back to the conferences Dave is talking about. Since he is talking about flaming in the context of the blogosphere, I assume these conferences are related at least in some material way to blogging and the blogosphere.

Who goes to these things? Do they pay lots of money to attend? Is it like a geek Oscar party where it not the party but the being invited that counts? Are there actual customers in attendance or only vendors and journalist types? Who are the customers of a conference about blogging? Isn’t it a little like preaching to the choir?

How many people attend these things? Is there a big group of people who travel from one to the next like some sort of Grateful Geek nation? Are there Daveheads? Is Dave a bigger celebrity than Ken? If they played checkers, who would win?

Do the people who attend these conferences have jobs? Is going to these conferences a part of their job? Do their companies pay for them to go to these conferences? Can I get a gig like that?

OK, so a lot of that is tongue in cheek.

But I don’t get the turf wars that seem to be ongoing over these conferences, camps, mashups, whatever the unnecessary synonym of the day is. What is the turf that someone is trying to protect? And why?

And One More Thing

And here’s another thing, what kind of conference lets somebody flame someone else from the podium without giving the recipient a chance to respond? I’ve never been to nerd camp but I have logged hundreds of hours behind the podium and I have never once witnessed anything like that- and if you think the egos at nerd camp are bigger than the ones at law or music camp, think again.

In fact, I have seen sponsors make time for someone who wasn’t on the agenda to present an opposing view point. How can we triangulate from a single data point?

Unless these conference are more cage match than college, anyone who lets people stand up and trash someone else just because they don’t get along isn’t doing a very good job of running a conference.

I Know You Are, But What Am I?

I don’t understand about 80% of what Dave and Scoble were talking about that got distilled into Dave’s post, but I still agree with Dave that once the issue becomes one of personality instead of issues, the conversation has been irreparably tainted and it is time to find someone else to talk to.

I enjoy the conversational nature of the blogosphere, and I particularly enjoy hearing someone explain why I need to rethink my position about things. Otherwise it’s just one big echo chamber. But some people just can’t handle disagreement, and so anyone who disagrees must be stupid or evil. I just tune those folks out, which makes them even madder. Shake the scorpion a little and it will sting itself to death. And all that.

So Give Me the Goods

What am I missing about these conferences that gets everybody in a tither?

UPDATE: Christopher Carfi taught me most of what I have been able to gather about these conferences via this excellent post, which I came across just now. I still don’t really know what an unconference is. Is is like 7-Up?

Triangulating Around the Flattened Earth

Jim McGee talks about triangulation and the citizen media movement represented by the blogosphere.

I have always tended to believe the consistencies that arise among competing forces, particularly when those forces are non-cooperative with each other and have non-parallel goals. Jim talks about how a wide and diverse collection of viewpoints can help you navigate through the often noisy and conflicting blogosphere.

Jim’s post is thought provoking, and the article he wrote for the Enterprise Systems Journal (linked in his post) is as well.

The Digital Trickle?

An article today at SiliconValley.com confirms what people have been expecting for some time: that the flow of new internet users in the U.S. has slowed dramatically.

This is the first cousin of the early adoption effect I talked about in the context of growth in the blogosphere and, while certainly a little troubling for the internet industry, shouldn’t be surprising.

And I don’t think it’s as bad as it may appear.

Two things will result in new user growth over the coming years. Both have to do with my suspicion that a disproportionate share of non-internet users fall into the categories of senior citizens and the economically disadvantaged.

To the very young, the internet is as integral to their daily lives as the telephone and the television. Most teenagers use the internet the way my generation used the phone when we were kids- as a way to stay connected with friends. They can’t remember a time when there wasn’t an internet, so there was no learning curve to overcome. As these kids grow up and have kids, the percentage of people who use the internet to one degree or another will continue to rise. Even economically disadvantaged kids have increasing access to the internet, either at school or via afternoon programs and neighborhood facilities.

Greater availability to the economically disadvantaged will be the other factor that drives growth. The problem is getting computers in the homes where people can more fully integrate them into their lives. There are a couple of factors that will help. One, computers are no longer the mystical, expensive devices they once were. Today, for about the price of a cell phone, you can buy a good computer. Two, the move by Google and others to create a cheaper method to access the internet may afford these computers an on-ramp to the internet. I made fun of Google’s plan to build another internet, but a computer with ads is certainly better than no computer at all.

Part of the 18% who say they aren’t interested in the internet are in one of both of those groups. And some part of that number, be they old or young, rich or poor, would develop interest in the internet if they knew more about it and had easy, affordable internet access.

The bottom line is that the early adopters have adopted, as have a lot of the utility users- the second phase who use the internet not because it’s cool, but because it is useful. But there are a lot of other potential users who will join the party as their generation ages and as the cost of admittance goes down.

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