Why I’m Not Buying Twitter

Twitter-Logo-150x150Steve Rubel has a post setting forth 3 reasons why Twitter will be sold soon.  I’ve been watching Twitter for a while.  I just signed up (see the box in the right column).  It’s a cool little application, but here are 3 reasons why I respectfully disagree with Steve.

1) Twitter is growing by leaps and bounds- no doubt about it.  It is the app de jour for the blogging crowd, which as I have said a million times before is sort of like being the favorite book of the Yeti crowd.  You hear a lot about Yeti if you happen to be in Nepal, but Yeti is a non-factor for most of the people in the world.  I also wonder how many of the current Twitter groupies will stay the course over the coming weeks and months as the new app de jours come and go.  If I were going to bet on someone getting bought, it would be Jott.  Now there is an application that I find really useful.  People in the real world will find Jott useful.

2) My reason number 2 is also Steve’s reason number 2: Twitter doesn’t monetize its audience.  It shares that inconvenient truth with about 99% of the rest of Web 2.0.  As soon as Google buys Twitter and starts trying to cram more ads down our throat (or collect more of our personal data), a lot of users will bolt.  Stated another way, the “I dig it” threshold is much lower for a garage project like Twitter is now than it is for yet another Google attempt to increase ads and decrease privacy.  Some one should go back and look at last years’ darlings and see how many of them have monetized their traffic.  And how many of them are out of business.

3) While Twitter is probably cheap, there is a reason for that.  If there were an obvious way to monetize its buzz, it wouldn’t be.  Even the Web 2.0 market is somewhat efficient.  It’s the big, seemingly insane buys (YouTube, MySpace, etc.) that end up prolonging the cycle and generating cash, or at least the potential for cash.  I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry about that, but it’s true.  These great little apps like Twitter have a hard time finding a place in the VC arena where everyone is trying to hit home runs.  Like Tony La Russa said, you can win a lot of games with doubles and singles, but most of the money gurus have forgotten this.

I like Twitter.  I’ll probably use it for a while.  But it’s not something I like enough to pay for or to suffer through ads for.

So unless some Mighty Casey with a lot of money to spend decides to take another stout swing, I think Twitter will have to settle for being cool.

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A Great CD Rediscovered

The other day, I was driving home listening to XM Radio.  I channel surfed over to one of the I Love Lucys (Fred or Ethyl or Lucy, I can’t remember which) and heard a wonderful song, from an almost perfect record, that I had forgotten all about (one of the sad by-products of the LP to 8-Track to cassette to CD to MP3 buy it all again scam).

It was Speedboat off of Lloyd Cole and the Commotions‘ first record.  Rattlesnakes, from 1984.  Speedboat is my favorite song on that record- and that’s saying something, as Rattlesnakes is an excellent record from the first song to the last.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD25jE0mqX4

A lot of the new bands I read about via Fred Wilson and others have a sound very similar to some of the post-punk alternative rock bands from the eighties.  I bought Rattlesnakes and have enjoyed rediscovering this gem.

Go buy it- preferably in CD or LP form.  You’ll be glad you did.

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What Do the RIAA and My Dog Have in Common?

They are both a walking bad decision.

riaaLucky sees the pantry- he immediately roots around for a loaf of bread to eat.  He notices some Amdro on an ant mound- yum…tasty.  At any given time, he has four or five bad ideas working simultaneously.

The RIAA sees the record label cartel begin to weaken- it immediately begins carpet bombing the resistance, and takes out a lot of customers, both wholesale and retail, in the process.

Techdirt led me to a very interesting article in yesterday’s New York Times.  In an op-ed piece by a couple of guys who used to own a record store – you know, the kind you actually drive to and browse- the following good points are made.

First, “The album, or collection of songs – the de facto way to buy pop music for the last 40 years – is suddenly looking old-fashioned. And the record store itself is going the way of the shoehorn.”

As a deep tracks sort of guy, this is the single worst thing that has happened to the music industry since someone decided to make Barbara Streisand a star.  I don’t want studio enhanced dribble from some eye candy media creation.  I won’t good albums full of good music, made by people who can actually write songs and play instruments.

Today’s music business is The Monkees writ large.

Another truth, “By continuing their campaign to eliminate the comparatively unprofitable CD single, raising list prices on album-length CDs to $18 or $19 and promoting artists like the Backstreet Boys and Britney Spears – whose strength was single songs, not albums. The result was a lot of unhappy customers, who blamed retailers like us for the dearth of singles and the high prices.”

Putting a couple of good songs on a record along with some filler and tossing it out the door has been a favorite trick of the record labels for as long as I have been buying records.  Back in the late 60s and 70s, we knew what acts could be counted on for a solid record and which ones couldn’t.  If there was a song on one of the latter records you wanted, you could either buy the single, record it off the radio or borrow your buddy’s copy and record it to a cassette.

Amazon (actually CD Now, but who remembers them?) landed the first blow to the traditional record store.  Most people can wait a couple of days for a CD, so online buying makes a lot of sense.  I will not buy a DRM infested song, yet I have not been in a record store in years.  I just click a button at Amazon and 2 days later the CD shows up at my door.

Then iTunes and others landed a blow to both the traditional record store and Amazon, by selling songs a la carte.  While I have a philosophical objection to DRM, to our kids DRM is just as normal as album covers and liner notes were to us.  They happily download the songs they want- DRM or not.  Going to Amazon and buying a CD is as strange and unlikely to them as downloading the latest Hannah Montana song is to me.

The world changed.

The RIAA then made it worse by trying to change it back.  From the artice:

Labels delivered the death blow to the record store as we know it by getting in bed with soulless chain stores like Best Buy and Wal-Mart. These “big boxes” were given exclusive tracks to put on new CDs and, to add insult to injury, they could sell them for less than our wholesale cost. They didn’t care if they didn’t make any money on CD sales. Because, ideally, the person who came in to get the new Eagles release with exclusive bonus material would also decide to pick up a high-speed blender that frappeed.

The RIAA tried to stuff the cat back into the bag, and all it accomplished was to put a lot music store owners and a lot of passionate music fans out of business.

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