Web 2.0 Wars: Quarter-Finals Round Two

The Web 2.0 Wars season has come to an end. The list of winners and playoff brackets were posted the other day.

Here’s how the playoffs will work. After taking a look at my prior commentary about each application, I’ll revisit each application and see what, if anything, is new. I’ll add an update for each contestant and pick the winner.

We are now in the quarter-finals and have already had Round 1. It’s time for the second round in the quarter-finals.

Here are the contestants for the second quarter-final round:

Last.fm
iKarma
Memeorandum
AllPeers
Riya

Last.fm is a very impressive social network focused on music. It has streaming music based on what you like and what those who like what you like like. I have used it extensively and, along with Pandora and Vault Radio, it forms the basis of my internet music listening experience.

iKarma is a feedback and self described reputation and feedback system. Think of it as eBay feedback for the whole internet. There still isn’t much feedback content. Neat idea, but it needs more people to input more feedback and I’m just not sure that’s going to happen.

Memeorandum is the king of the memetrackers. I’ve talked about it a ton, and it is one of the first sites I read every day. It is probably the most useful web site on the internet when it comes to finding tech-related news.

AllPeers is is a Firefox extension based on a bittorent application that allows groups of buddies to share files.

Riya is a photo sharing service with a twist. It has face and text recognition capability that help you identify and name your photos. Though I am not as blown away as others by the face recognition features, it is a well designed photo sharing service in its own right.

And the Winner of the second quarter-final round is:

In a battle between Last.fm and Memeorandum, I have to give the edge to Memeorandum based on how often I use it. Unlike last round, when YouTube edged out TailRank due to its penetration into the non-tech population, none of this week’s contestants have that kind of penetration.

Memeorandum moves to the Final Four.

Dave Wallace on Tablet PC's

Dave Wallace (Dave the Lifekludger) takes a detailed look at a Sahara Tablet PC and details how it can be configured for use by people with disabilities. Dave is an IT Coordinator, podcaster and blogger, who happens to be a C4 quadriplegic.

Dave was able to configure his tablet to put a lot of computing power in a small space, as the photos comparing his regular computer and his Tablet PC will attest.

The handwriting (Dave uses a mouthstick) recognition application seems to work well for Dave. Actually, it works better for him that it does for me. He had less success with the voice recognition application- I’ve never had any success with voice recognition software and gave up trying a year or so ago. Voice recognition sounds great in theory. But I’ve never been able to make it work reliably.

All in all, the Tablet PC worked pretty well for Dave. As with anything, there are compromises to make (size vs screen space, etc.), but the Tablet PC was much more configurable disability-wise than I would have predicted.

In a Comment to Dave’s post, mobile guru James Kendrick mentions that there is a Sahara Tablet with a touch screen. That might be an even better solution.

Dwight's Favorite Tech Blogs

Dwight Silverman of the Houston Chronicle is doing a series on his favorite web sites. He calls it his Fave6, and lists his six favorite web sites in various categories.

This weekend he did tech blogs, and I am honored to be one of the six along with Ed Bott, Steve Rubel, the Sunbelt Blog, Om Malik and Guy Kawasaki.

Obviously, Dwight can’t pick his own blog, but his TechBlog would certainly be on anyone else’s list of favorite tech blogs, including mine.

Thanks for including me Dwight. I really appreciate it.

The Possibility of Miracles

This post is about Easter.

But first, I want to start with a couple of preliminary thoughts, before I write the substantive content.

First, about religion. I am a Christian, though not always a good one. I am a fairly active member of a local Methodist church. Having said that, my religious philosophy can best be described as a “many paths” approach. Unlike much of the religious right, with whom I largely disagree, I do not believe that one religion is better than another. And I do not believe that there is only one path to heaven or a heaven-equivalent. I believe there are many. Many paths. Many maps. But paths and maps that have far more similarities than differences, and paths and maps that lead to substantially the same destination.

Second, about miracles. My personal definition of a miracle is something good and very important that happens in the face of a set of circumstances that make it highly unlikely that a good result will occur.

For those who celebrate it, of course, Easter is about miracles.

I have personally witnessed two miracles that I know of. Neither involved me or my family. Both involved friends and specifically children of friends.

The first occurred 3-4 years ago. A friend of mine’s son was in a horrible automobile accident. He was in a coma for weeks and at one time the prognosis was not good (to put it mildly). During his long stay in the hospital, I stopped by on my way home from work several times a week. I saw his parents in a state of complete anguish. I and many others prayed for this young man. A lot.

My friend’s son woke up. Got better. A weak ankle is about all that remains from that horrible event. It was a miracle. How do I know? Because I believe it to be so, based on my definitions and my meditations.

The second one occurred this week. Easter week 2006. Some other friends of ours have a little girl about Cassidy’s age. They live in different states, but they know each other and are friends. This little girl got sick a month or so ago. Very sick. Initially, the prognosis was very dire. Again, people prayed. Family, friends and strangers. Through a web site the family started to keep friends updated so they could focus on medical care, people all over the world came to know and care about this little girl.

Earlier this week brought a diagnosis of a treatable disease. I was overcome with joy (literally) when I read the good news. Because this little girl is going to be OK. And because I knew, again using my personal definition, that I had witnessed another miracle.

Miracles are complicated, however. There is no recipe for them and they are often withheld, even in the face of sustained and widespread prayer.

For that reason, I cannot and do not attribute prayer as the reason for miracles. It is simply not possible to do so. Otherwise, prayers would have brought upon miracles in other situations where they were needed just as much. Prayers would have protected Dear Elena (for whom I still mourn even though I didn’t know her personally). Sadly, there are many more examples of miracles withheld than there are of miracles occurring.

Thus, when we celebrate a miracle that did happen, we simultaneously mourn the ones that didn’t.

Miracles are not a mathematical equation- which is difficult for someone like me who sees almost everything as math. Miracles are about faith. Faith not that they will happen, because too often they don’t.

Faith only that they can happen. Faith to recognize it when one does happen.

Miracles cannot be predicted. They can only be hoped for. For many, that hope and the recognition that miracles sometimes do occur is the basis of prayer for those in need.

Prayer is the celebration of the possibility of a miracle.

That doesn’t make it any easier for me to think about the miracles that didn’t happen. But it does allow me to reconcile, at least to an extent, the pure joy and gratitude I feel when I think about our friends’ daughter getting well with the sorrow I feel when I think about miracles withheld.

It’s the possibility of miracles that I am grateful for on this Easter.

Scoble’s New Plan

Robert Scoble has a post today that covers so much interesting stuff, I’m not sure where to start.

First and most importantly, he has made some decisions designed to increase his personal happiness and his blogging experience.

He says:

Some things I’ve changed? 1) No more coffee. 2) No more soda. 3) Xercising. 4) No more unhappy people in my life. 5) Get balance back in my own life.

He also decided to start moderating the Comments on his blog:

This is a huge change for me. I wanted a free speech area, but after having a week off I realize that I need to make a change. That, I’m sure, will lead to attacks of “censorship” and all that hooey. Too bad. I’m instituting a “family room” rule here. If I don’t like it, it gets deleted and deleted without warning Â just the same as if you said something abusive in my family room I’d kick you out of my house. If you don’t like that new rule, there are plenty of other places on the Internet to write your thoughts. Start a blog and link here. Etc. Etc.

I am totally down with that. Robert is in a bit of a unique situation since he blogs at least somewhat on behalf of his employer, Microsoft. But blogs absolutely should reflect the “family room” values of their owners. I booted Tagworld out of my Web 2.0 Wars for offending my values, and I encourage and applaud Robert for taking a similar approach to his Comments, which often end up either in an anonymous bash-fest or a conga line of mundane comments made in the name of a link.

Whoever decided that squelching static is somehow inconsistent with free speech got it backwards. Too many idiots hijacking a discussion thread will harm free speech a lot faster than moderated comments will.

Another interesting thing I found in Robert’s post is his reference to Don Miguel Ruiz’s Four Agreements. I have never heard of them before, but they are both logical and compelling.

Finally, in his now moderated Comments is a good discussion about the sin-tricity of Second Life, which I talked about the other day. In a Comment to my post, Pathfinder Linden, Second Life’s internet ambassador, addressed the issue as follows:

One thing about Second Life is that it is strictly for adults (18+). However, we have a separate “grid” called “Teen Second Life” (http://teen.secondlife.com/) that is exclusively for 13-17 yr olds. All content on the Teen Grid is PG, there is no gambling or casinos, and it is carefully monitored to keep it as teen-safe as possible.

While I wish there were more non-sex, non-gambling activities in Second Life, I generally buy that explanation.

If we wanted to really do something smart, the Memeorandum/tech blog crowd would find some place in Second Life and build our own little community. If anyone wants to kick start something like that, I’m game.

The Tree is Cooler, but the House is Familiar

Richard Stiennon has an article at ZDNet that shows via some interesting pictures why Windows is less secure than Linux. The theory, which sounds logical to me, is that “in its long evolution, Windows has grown so complicated that it is harder to secure.”

I suspect that is the case. Imagine a house on which you add new rooms and wings every year or so. Eventually, there are so many windows and doors that anyone who tries can find a way in and the original burglar alarm isn’t equipped to handle all the new stuff.

That’s probably a good way to think of the Windows security issues.

That, of course, and the fact that everyone lives in houses, so the crooks know that’s where the goods are kept. If everyone lived in trees, the crooks would focus on trees.

In other words, the fact that most people use Windows means that the virus and spyware writers focus on Windows.

Granted, you could use Linux if you wanted to have a more secure system, but I’ve used Linux and while I appreciate all that it can do, it is simply too hard to configure for the average computer user. Plus, a lot of the software that people are used to doesn’t have a Linux version. The smart choice may be Linux, but clearly the easy choice is Windows. In that race, I generally put my money on easy.

When forced to choose between safe in a tree or vulnerable in a house, most people pick the house. Even if the tree is cooler.

So we patch and firewall and hope, while Microsoft keeps building more rooms.

Web 2.0 Wars: Quarter-Finals Round One

The Web 2.0 Wars season has come to an end. The list of winners and playoff brackets were posted the other day.

Now it’s time for the first round in the quarter-finals.

Here’s how the playoffs will work. After taking a look at my prior commentary about each application, I’ll revisit the page and see what, if anything, is new. I’ll add an update for each contestant and pick the winner.

Here are the contestants for the first quarter-final round:

Pageflakes
YouTube
Poddater
TailRank (replaced Tagworld)
FireAnt

Pageflakes is a content aggregator and custom portal. It is easy to set up and has some pre-configured content to help you get started. You can import your RSS feeds or add content manually. I still prefer My Yahoo, but that may be because I am so familiar with it. Pageflakes is a well designed and easy to use application.

YouTube is a video hosting, sharing and search service. It’s free and seems fast and reliable. Since it won Round 2 back in early February, it has really taken off. Even people who know little about tech and the internet are becoming aware of YouTube. This week I noticed a secretary in my office watching this somewhat pitiful and somewhat hilarious ego-fest (Warning: strong language; not suitable for kids). Youtube is a force to be reckoned with.

Poddater is a personals meets podcasting site. You make a video profile and upload it to share with others. I’m about a thousand years too old to be interested in this, but it’s a unique idea and the web site looks very well designed. This is one service that I can’t sign up and try for obviously, but the idea is a good one.

TailRank is a memetracker, and a mighty fine one at that. Since winning Round 4, Kevin and crew have added one excellent feature after another to TailRank. Listening to users is smart on so many levels, and Kevin listens to his users. A well designed and useful application with huge potential.

FireAnt is a video blog directory and search engine. The downloadable client allows you to watch video blogs in many different formats. You can search for content and you can subscribe to RSS video feeds and have content delivered to you automatically. It’s a neat service, but I still prefer YouTube for my video needs.

And the Winner of the first quarter-final round is:

While all of these applications are excellent and have great potential, YouTube and TailRank are juggernauts of the new internet. Either one would be a great choice to move to the Final Four, but YouTube’s penetration into the non-tech population gives it a slight edge.

YouTube moves to the Final Four.

TIVO Deathwatch: DirecTV Wins Again

This heart of mine could never see
What everybody knew but me
Just trusting you was my great sin
What can I do, you win again

– Hank Williams

DirecTV and TIVO made an announcement today that at first blush sounds like great news. At first blush.

In the wake of DirecTV abandoning TIVO in favor of some as yet unreleased DirecTV branded recorder, the parties agreed to extend their “commercial agreement” for 3 years.

So what does this mean for DirecTV customers who use TIVOs? In my house we have 4 of the HDTV DirecTIVOs. I call them our $1000 doorstops in waiting.

First of all, it won’t keep our TIVOs from being obsolete in the face of the move to MPEG-4 by DirecTV as a part of the roll out of local networks in HDTV. In fact, the Houston stations are supposedly available now in HDTV. The only problem is that there is no MPEG-4 compatible DirecTIVO or equivalent. So while today’s news likely means that my DirecTIVOs will continue to receive the channels that are currently available, they will not get the Houston HDTV locals or presumably any new DirecTV HDTV content, which will likely be pushed in MPEG-4 format.

It also seems unlikely that TIVO will produce a new MPEG-4 compatible DirecTIVO. And if it did, the fool me one rule dictates that consumers not buy it in light of the 3 year term of the new agreement. I suppose if the unit came out shortly, I’d consider buying it, as 3 years is a long time in tech-years. But every day that passes makes that a less desirable option.

While this deal sends a little oxygen into TIVO’s breathing tube, the real win is on the DirecTV side of the ledger, as part of the deal is an agreement that TIVO will not sue DirecTV for patent infringement, like it is currently suing EchoStar, operator of the Dish Network.

Meanwhile, DirecTV continues to develop and market their own branded digital recorders.

TIVO does get an extension of the $1 per month per TIVO box payment from DirecTV. This is worth about $36M a year- which is real money.

Commenting on the new deal, Nyquist Capital cuts to the bottom line and says:

In short, we’re a little stumped why the market thinks this is such a great deal beyond protecting a recurring revenue stream. If DirecTV had agreed to use Tivo exclusively and stop in house development, that would be big news. All that has really happened is a further extension of the status quo.

My conclusion is that someone at DirecTV got smart and proactive and cut a deal with TIVO that DirecTV views more as a settlement of the potential patent infringement claim than a business deal, in exchange for continuing the $1 per month per TIVO box payments for 3 more years. The fact that this will delay enraging all of the DirecTV TIVO users is just icing on the cake.

Let me say it again- this is about lawsuit avoidance. Think of it as a pre-settlement of a potential lawsuit.

TIVO gets some much needed cash to keep the lights on while it tries in vain to reinvent itself. DirecTV gets out of a potentially messy lawsuit and can claim to be taking care of its TIVO-loving customers.

Thomas Hawk (like me a TIVO user), while agreeing that there is less than meets the eye here, calls it a win/win. From the stands it sure looks like it.

But I bet if you pulled up the photo finish tape and had the contract in your hand, one horse’s nose clearly hit the finish line first.

DirecTV wins again.

Bring Out Yer Dead: The Last Days of Traditional Radio

Bring out yer dead.
Here’s one.
I’m not dead.
He says he’s not dead.
Yes he is.
I’m not.
Well, he will be soon, he’s very ill.
I’m getting better.
No you’re not, you’ll be stone dead in a moment.

-Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Podcasting News reports today that podcasting and MP3 players are stealing listeners from traditional over the air radio. Cited is a study by Bridge Ratings, which predicts that by 2010, traditional radio’s current 94% penetration will have sunk to 85%.

According to the study, 27% of people 12-24 attribute their reduced use of radio to MP3 use; 22% attributed it to tired radio programming; 3% attributed it to podcast listening.

Other than the podcasting number, which seems about 10 times too high, those numbers sound pretty logical to me. I wonder, however, why there wasn’t consideration of the migration to satellite radio. My guess is that satellite radio, which is largely ad-free, will be the biggest threat to traditional radio.

Fred Wilson thinks HD Radio may save the traditional radio format. Perhaps, but I still say the desire for no ads will trump the desire for higher audio quality.

I believe that what’s killing traditional radio, and particularly FM radio, is its dependence on ads as the major revenue source. You can get away with ads for sporting events and other exclusive programming, but not music. No way. Not anymore.

The world is too flat for traditional advertising to fly. This is true in every media, and it is especially true for music. The smart PR firms out there are huddled in conference rooms thinking up some revolutionary marketing strategy that we haven’t seen yet. Mark my words- in 5 years advertising will be a lot different than it is today and in 10 years it will be a completely different industry.

Entire companies have been launched in the name of ad-avoidance. There’s simply no way people are going to continue to listen to over the top car ads and other nonsense just to hear the same songs they can hear without ads via an MP3 player or satellite radio. I often burn a CD-R with MP3’s and listen to it for a few days in shuffle mode. As the CD and DVD recording technology becomes more widespread and as auto makers continue to put better technology in cars, this trend will continue.

So what does traditional radio do? It has one major revenue source- and it is the exact one that will not work long term.

Traditional radio is dead. The only question is what will take its place.

Tags: radio, mp3, satellite radio

An Internet for Every Laptop

In a move destined to up the stakes in the internet multiplier game, a company called Webaroo has developed a tool that will put the internet (well, at least the important parts of it) on your laptop. No more pesky internet connection problems.

For a mere 40 GB of space, you can take the internet with you.

Google, who has been developing a measly one new internet, will certainly feel pressured now to develop a few more. Maybe Google will announce a program to put internets on iPods or maybe cell phones. I have a refrigerator that should be good for 7-8 internets.

Techdirt, as always, has a good read on this story.

Look, I travel a good bit. And the lack of an internet connection can be a pain. But there are three forces already in motion to fix this problem:

1) Free wi-fi. Many cities and lots of businesses are rolling out free wi-fi as a public service and/or a way to attract traffic. The shopping mall beside my office just announced that it has free wi-fi for visitors.

2) National wireless networks, like Verizon’s, which I use and have written favorably about here. At $15 a month extra to use my phone as a modem, one business trip per month without the need to buy access from a hotel or airport pays for the cost.

3) Airlines are gradually rolling out internet connections on their airplanes. Granted, there will probably be a cost involved. But if you need the internet for business, a small charge isn’t going to keep you from connecting. If you are not traveling on business and you can’t generally do without the internet on a plane, you need to reassess your priorities.

I also wonder what the business model is here. Are ads pushed in addition to the internet content? Will content providers pay to get in or at the top of the saved cache? If it’s free (and it is according to the FAQ), there has to be revenue from some other source. The only one I can think of is the old Web 2.0 standby- ads. Either directly or indirectly via page placement within the downloaded cache. If there’s another logical revenue stream, I can’t think of it.

So, I guess I’m wondering- what’s the catch?

In sum, an offline internet might solve a few problems for a few people, but I don’t see much of a business opportunity here.